Shrinkage · Epicor · Head of Procurement

Epicor plus Ward: shrinkage for a Head of Procurement

Ward ingests sales orders, inventory, purchase orders from Epicor, runs shrinkage on it, and delivers the procurement read each day.

Shrinkage Detection on Epicor, for procurement

Here is shrinkage detection in plain terms. Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error.

Merchandising wants Ward. You sign the contract. Ward writes the finding at the altitude a Head of Procurement works at.

What Ward does with that: Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

Setup: Ward connects via Epicor REST API. Compatible with Epicor Prophet 21 and Epicor Eclipse.

Key capabilities

  • Cause-level shrinkage attribution
  • Store-vs-estate benchmarking
  • Receiving dock anomaly detection
  • Pattern recognition across time
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Retail @Merchandising: VP Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why did Store 37 miss target last week?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Merchandising Agent

I pulled Store 37’s last 28 days against the chain baseline. Two root causes, both compounding.

SignalFinding
labor_efficiencyRev/labor-hour −22% vs. cluster, staffing mismatch at 11a–1p peak
inventory.freshFresh fill 83%, backroom replenishment lag at 2–4p
promo.liftBOGO crackers cannibalized Brand Y by 28%, net category +6%

Recommend: re-baseline Store 37 schedule against true peak, raise replen window to 1p, and review the BOGO before next cycle.

8 parallel queries 3 sources cited confidence 0.92
Show me how to fix the staffing mismatch.
You · 9:43 AM
Labor Agent · drafting schedule diff
Querying labor_scheduling
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Reporting

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.

7d13w52w
Revenue vs. forecast
$48.2M
+4.2% WoW
Gross margin %
24.1%
−3.2pp
Fill rate, fresh
83.4%
−4.1pp
Shrink, West region
2.41%
+0.8pp
Revenue vs. forecast 13 weeks actual, 6 weeks forecast, 80% interval
Actual Forecast 80% interval
% of plan 106 94 100 forecast → W−13 W−5 today +6wk
Holt-Winters + weather regressor MAPE 4.1% at 4wk Backtested 24 months Crosses plan in 3 weeks
Forecast error by horizon MAPE, 24-month backtest
1wk 2.1%
2wk 3.0%
4wk 4.1%
8wk 6.3%
13wk 8.9%
Accuracy bar for promo decisions: ≤5% at 4wk
Models in production Every forecast ships a model card
ModelHorizonMAPE
holt_winters4wk4.1%
arima_sarimax13wk8.9%
gbm_demand1wk2.1%
bayes_hiernew store11.4%

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
sap_pos_transactionsimport2m ago
sap_inventory_shrinkageimport2m ago
sap_labor_schedulingimport14m ago
retail_inventory_weeklyimport1h ago
retail_google_ads_dailyimport1h ago
retail_meta_ads_dailyimport1h ago
retail_ga4_website_dailyimport1h ago

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
merch-read-defaultpermitModel::*
finance-read-shrinkagepermitModel::"inventory_shrinkage"
vendor-blockedforbidModel::"labor_*"
region-west-onlypermitTenant::"acme"
Shrinkage on Epicor data, live product demo.

Why this combination
is its own problem.

A Head of Procurement rarely logs into Epicor. They read what someone else pulled out of it, two days later. Ward removes the two days and the someone else.

What Ward has eyes on.

Ward ingests Epicor rather than replacing it. Sales orders, inventory, purchase orders come across on a read-only connection, get enriched with contextual data, and come back as insight cards. Your ERP is untouched.

The shrinkage model runs every morning, not on a reporting calendar. It picks up the pattern, traces root cause, and attaches a recommended move before the number reaches a review deck.

What the first 90 days
actually look like.

  1. 01

    Week 1: connect

    Read-only credentials to Epicor. Ward pulls from sales orders, inventory, purchase orders and starts building baselines. First cards land inside 48 hours, before baselines are stable, so you can see the shape of the output early.

  2. 02

    Weeks 2 to 3: calibration

    Baselines stabilize per store and per category. Ward stops flagging normal variance and starts flagging exceptions. This is the window where the false positive rate drops sharply.

  3. 03

    Weeks 4 to 12: operating rhythm

    Daily cards arrive on a daily cycle and get triaged like any other queue. Most teams find the volume settles into something one person clears in ten minutes. What matters is the action rate, not the alert count.

How Ward connects to Epicor

Ward integrates with Epicor for home improvement, furniture, and building supply retailers. Inventory, purchasing, production, and sales data power insight cards.

Setup: Ward connects via Epicor REST API. Compatible with Epicor Prophet 21 and Epicor Eclipse.

Data Ward reads from Epicor

Sales orders
Inventory
Purchase orders
Customer accounts
Pricing tiers
Vendor performance

Impact metrics with Epicor

Seasonal Accuracy
Pre-buy timing sharpened
Weather and event signals calibrate seasonal positioning.
Project Basket Value
Cross-sell patterns found
Project purchasing sequences reveal attachment opportunities.
Vendor Fill Rate
Degradation caught early
Fill rate drops flagged before shelf impact materializes.
Inventory Carrying Cost
Slow-movers identified
Demand-aligned ordering frees capital tied in dead stock.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches Epicor data with: Sales orders, Weather & events, Contractor/Pro data, Competitor pricing, Vendor scorecards

Merchandising wants Ward. You sign the contract.

Pain points
  • ×Business sponsor saw the demo. You have a week to vet a vendor you didn't pick
  • ×AI vendors price by seats and tokens. Total cost is unknowable until invoice three
  • ×Multi-year commits with auto-renew. No exit if the pilot stalls
  • ×Renewals come back 30% higher, with no room to push back and no benchmark to cite
  • ×Security and DPA reviews start after the team has already committed
How Ward helps
  • MSA, DPA, SOC 2 Type II underway, and architecture review available before signature
  • Month-to-month contracts. No multi-year lock-in. No auto-renew traps
  • Transparent pricing set by scope and store count
  • 14-day insight guarantee. If Ward doesn't deliver, month two is on us
  • AI strategy, orchestration and reporting-layer work in enterprise grocery at nine-figure revenue. Reference calls available before signature

Enterprise SaaS spend grew 18% YoY. 53% of subscriptions are underused or duplicative. Source: Gartner

Frequently asked questions

Ward connects via Epicor REST API. Compatible with Epicor Prophet 21 and Epicor Eclipse. Data points include: Sales orders, Inventory, Purchase orders, Customer accounts, Pricing tiers, Vendor performance.

Merchandising wants Ward. You sign the contract. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: MSA, DPA, SOC 2 Type II underway, and architecture review available before signature. Month-to-month contracts. No multi-year lock-in. No auto-renew traps. Transparent pricing set by scope and store count.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

See what shrinkage problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

Step 1 of 3
What are your goals?
Step 2 of 3
About your operation
Step 3 of 3
Your contact info