VP Merchandising: shrinkage straight off NCR
Your category managers are drowning in spreadsheets. Ward catches shrinkage movement in your NCR data and explains what caused it.
Shrinkage Detection on NCR, for merchandising
Shrinkage Detection is a card type Ward runs continuously. Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error.
Your category managers are drowning in spreadsheets. Ward raises the signals that change a merchandising decision.
How it runs. Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.
Getting the data in. Ward reads NCR transaction data via API or data export. Real-time or batch, depending on your NCR configuration.
Capabilities
- Store-vs-estate benchmarking
- Receiving dock anomaly detection
- Pattern recognition across time
- Cause-level shrinkage attribution
Chat
Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.
I pulled Store 37’s last 28 days against the chain baseline. Two root causes, both compounding.
| Signal | Finding |
|---|---|
labor_efficiency | Rev/labor-hour −22% vs. cluster, staffing mismatch at 11a–1p peak |
inventory.fresh | Fresh fill 83%, backroom replenishment lag at 2–4p |
promo.lift | BOGO crackers cannibalized Brand Y by 28%, net category +6% |
Recommend: re-baseline Store 37 schedule against true peak, raise replen window to 1p, and review the BOGO before next cycle.
labor_scheduling…
Reporting
Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.
| Model | Horizon | MAPE |
|---|---|---|
holt_winters | 4wk | 4.1% |
arima_sarimax | 13wk | 8.9% |
gbm_demand | 1wk | 2.1% |
bayes_hier | new store | 11.4% |
Sources
Connect external systems to the data lake.
| Name | Type | Last sync |
|---|---|---|
sap_pos_transactions | import | 2m ago |
sap_inventory_shrinkage | import | 2m ago |
sap_labor_scheduling | import | 14m ago |
retail_inventory_weekly | import | 1h ago |
retail_google_ads_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_meta_ads_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_ga4_website_daily | import | 1h ago |
Policies
Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.
| Policy ID | Effect | Resources |
|---|---|---|
merch-read-default | permit | Model::* |
finance-read-shrinkage | permit | Model::"inventory_shrinkage" |
vendor-blocked | forbid | Model::"labor_*" |
region-west-only | permit | Tenant::"acme" |
Why this combination
is its own problem.
Shrinkage Detection produces a lot of output that is technically correct and operationally useless to merchandising. Ward filters on whether the finding changes a decision a VP Merchandising can actually make.
What Ward has eyes on.
The connection to NCR Voyix is read-only and runs on your schedule. Ward pulls from POS transactions, item-level sales, and the rest of the feed, then combines it with external context your POS does not carry: weather, local events, competitor pricing.
The shrinkage model runs on a daily cycle, not on a reporting calendar. It detects the pattern, traces what caused it, and attaches the next step before the number reaches a review deck.
What the first 90 days
actually look like.
-
01
Week 1: connect
Read-only credentials to NCR Voyix. Ward reads POS transactions, item-level sales, tender data and starts building baselines. First findings land inside 48 hours, before baselines are stable, so you can see the shape of the output early.
-
02
Weeks 2 to 3: baselines
Ward needs roughly two weeks of history per store to separate a real deviation from normal variance. During this window the cards are directionally right and the thresholds are still moving.
-
03
Weeks 4 to 12: steady state
Ward hands you insight cards daily, each with the driver and a recommended action. Volume settles at a level a single person can read over coffee. The measure of success is not how many daily cards arrive, it is how many get acted on.
How Ward connects to NCR Voyix
Ward integrates with NCR Voyix POS and Aloha for convenience and restaurant retail. Transaction-level data powers daypart analysis and impulse optimization.
Setup: Ward reads NCR transaction data via API or data export. Real-time or batch, depending on your NCR configuration.
Data Ward reads from NCR
Impact metrics with NCR
Data lake enrichment
Ward enriches NCR data with: POS transactions, Weather & events, Loyalty data, Competitor proximity, Demographic data
Your category managers are drowning in spreadsheets.
- ×Promo planning still runs off last year's playbook
- ×Assortment reviews happen quarterly when they should happen daily
- ×Price changes chase the market a week behind it
- ×No visibility into true cannibalization across categories
- ×Vendor negotiations lack real-time sell-through evidence
- ✓Insight cards flag promo cannibalization the day it happens
- ✓Assortment gaps and whitespace opportunities surface automatically
- ✓Price elasticity shifts detected before margin erosion compounds
- ✓Category-level performance cards replace manual spreadsheet reviews
- ✓Vendor scorecards generated from actual fill rate and quality data
Retailers lose an estimated $300B+ annually to suboptimal assortment and promotional decisions. Source: McKinsey & Company
Frequently asked questions
Ward reads NCR transaction data via API or data export. Real-time or batch, depending on your NCR configuration. Data points include: POS transactions, Item-level sales, Tender data, Daypart summaries, Loyalty data.
Your category managers are drowning in spreadsheets. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Insight cards flag promo cannibalization the day it happens. Assortment gaps and whitespace opportunities surface automatically. Price elasticity shifts detected before margin erosion compounds.
First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.
No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.
Related solutions
See what shrinkage problems Ward catches.
Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.
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