Shrinkage Detection for CFO / VP Finance, read from Shopify / Shopify Plus
Ward reads orders & line items, product catalog, inventory levels from Shopify / Shopify Plus, runs shrinkage on it, and sends the finance read each day.
How a CFO runs shrinkage off Shopify / Shopify Plus
Your P&L surprises are born on the store floor. Ward surfaces the signals that change a finance decision.
Shrinkage Detection is a insight card type Ward runs continuously. Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error.
How it runs. Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.
Getting the data in. OAuth-based connection. Ward reads via Shopify Admin GraphQL API. Real-time webhooks for order and inventory events.
What it does
- Receiving dock anomaly detection
- Pattern recognition across time
- Cause-level shrinkage attribution
- Store-vs-estate benchmarking
Chat
Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.
I pulled Store 37’s last 28 days against the chain baseline. Two root causes, both compounding.
| Signal | Finding |
|---|---|
labor_efficiency | Rev/labor-hour −22% vs. cluster, staffing mismatch at 11a–1p peak |
inventory.fresh | Fresh fill 83%, backroom replenishment lag at 2–4p |
promo.lift | BOGO crackers cannibalized Brand Y by 28%, net category +6% |
Recommend: re-baseline Store 37 schedule against true peak, raise replen window to 1p, and review the BOGO before next cycle.
labor_scheduling…
Reporting
Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.
| Model | Horizon | MAPE |
|---|---|---|
holt_winters | 4wk | 4.1% |
arima_sarimax | 13wk | 8.9% |
gbm_demand | 1wk | 2.1% |
bayes_hier | new store | 11.4% |
Sources
Connect external systems to the data lake.
| Name | Type | Last sync |
|---|---|---|
sap_pos_transactions | import | 2m ago |
sap_inventory_shrinkage | import | 2m ago |
sap_labor_scheduling | import | 14m ago |
retail_inventory_weekly | import | 1h ago |
retail_google_ads_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_meta_ads_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_ga4_website_daily | import | 1h ago |
Policies
Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.
| Policy ID | Effect | Resources |
|---|---|---|
merch-read-default | permit | Model::* |
finance-read-shrinkage | permit | Model::"inventory_shrinkage" |
vendor-blocked | forbid | Model::"labor_*" |
region-west-only | permit | Tenant::"acme" |
What Ward has eyes on.
The shrinkage model runs daily, not on a reporting calendar. It picks up the pattern, accounts for the cause, and attaches the next step before the number reaches a review deck.
Ward pulls from orders & line items, product catalog, inventory levels from Shopify / Shopify Plus on a read-only connection. Nothing is written back, and your Commerce configuration does not change. Shopify stays the system of record.
Why this combination
is its own problem.
Most shrinkage projects stall at data access. This one does not, because Shopify already exposes orders & line items, product catalog, inventory levels through an API Ward reads directly.
What the first 90 days
actually look like.
-
01
Week 1: read-only connection
Ward sits on top of Shopify / Shopify Plus with read-only credentials and begins ingesting orders & line items and product catalog. No config changes on your side. First daily cards arrive inside the first 48 hours.
-
02
Weeks 2 to 3: baselines
Ward needs roughly two weeks of history per store to separate a real deviation from normal variance. During this window the cards are directionally right and the thresholds are still moving.
-
03
Weeks 4 to 12: steady state
Ward hands you insight cards daily, each with root cause and what to do about it. Volume settles at a level a single person can read over coffee. The measure of success is not how many insight cards arrive, it is how many get acted on.
How Ward connects to Shopify / Shopify Plus
Ward connects to Shopify and Shopify Plus via the Admin API. Orders, products, inventory, and customer data power Ward insight cards for omnichannel retailers.
Setup: OAuth-based connection. Ward reads via Shopify Admin GraphQL API. Real-time webhooks for order and inventory events.
Data Ward reads from Shopify
Impact metrics with Shopify
Data lake enrichment
Ward enriches Shopify data with: Order & line items, Customer behavior, Marketing attribution, Returns & exchanges, Competitor pricing
Your P&L surprises are born on the store floor.
- ×Margin erosion only surfaces at month-end close
- ×Inventory carrying costs are a black box
- ×Working capital tied up in slow-moving stock nobody is watching
- ×Same-store sales comps lack decomposition into actionable drivers
- ×Capex decisions for store remodels lack unit-economics evidence
- ✓GMROI tracking by category with weekly insight cards
- ✓Inventory carrying cost alerts when capital efficiency drops
- ✓Working capital optimization recommendations based on turnover trends
- ✓SSS decomposition into traffic, conversion, and basket components
- ✓Store-level unit economics cards for capex prioritization
Inventory distortion, overstock and out-of-stock combined, costs retailers $1.77 trillion globally. Source: IHL Group
Frequently asked questions
OAuth-based connection. Ward reads via Shopify Admin GraphQL API. Real-time webhooks for order and inventory events. Data points include: Orders & line items, Product catalog, Inventory levels, Customer profiles, Discount usage, Fulfillment data.
Your P&L surprises are born on the store floor. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: GMROI tracking by category with weekly insight cards. Inventory carrying cost alerts when capital efficiency drops. Working capital optimization recommendations based on turnover trends.
First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.
No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.
Related solutions
See what shrinkage problems Ward catches.
Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.
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Find out what your data has been hiding.
Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.