Head of LP: convenience customer, read from Microsoft Power BI
Understand the person behind the basket. Ward runs it on Power BI data throughout your convenience footprint, scoped to loss prevention.
Customer Behavior for Convenience on Power BI, scoped to loss prevention
Convenience & C-Store changes the scale of the problem: 3,000+ SKUs, every one of your locations. High-frequency, low-SKU environments where every facing counts. Ward monitors impulse categories and daypart demand patterns around the clock.
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where. Ward writes the finding at the altitude a Head of LP works at.
What customer behavior does: Ward tracks basket composition shifts, daypart patterns, and customer segment migration.
How Ward hands you Customer cards: Ward analyzes transaction-level data to detect shifts in basket composition, shopping frequency, daypart preferences, and segment movement.
The connection itself. Ward connects to the same data sources Power BI uses. Or reads Power BI datasets via REST API. Your reports stay untouched.
Capabilities
- Customer segment migration
- Cross-sell opportunity detection
- Basket composition trends
- Daypart behavior modeling
Chat
Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.
I pulled the 6–9a daypart for the 14 Route 9 sites against the chain baseline. Two causes, one of them scheduling.
| Signal | Finding |
|---|---|
daypart_sales | 6–9a revenue −11% vs. chain, coffee units −18% |
labor_scheduling | Second associate clocks in at 7:30a, peak starts 6:40a at 9 of 14 sites |
foodservice.waste | Breakfast sandwich waste 14%, hold times past 4 hours at 6 sites |
Recommend: move the second open to 6:15a at those nine sites, cut the breakfast batch by one tray, and re-check attach in two weeks.
daypart_sales…
Reporting
Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.
| Model | Horizon | MAPE |
|---|---|---|
holt_winters | 4wk | 4.1% |
arima_sarimax | 13wk | 8.9% |
gbm_demand | 1wk | 2.1% |
bayes_hier | new store | 11.4% |
Sources
Connect external systems to the data lake.
| Name | Type | Last sync |
|---|---|---|
ncr_pos_transactions | import | 2m ago |
pdi_fuel_transactions | import | 2m ago |
verifone_forecourt_events | import | 14m ago |
ncr_planogram_audit | import | 1h ago |
retail_daypart_sales | import | 1h ago |
retail_foodservice_waste | import | 1h ago |
retail_labor_scheduling | import | 1h ago |
Policies
Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.
| Policy ID | Effect | Resources |
|---|---|---|
ops-read-default | permit | Model::* |
lp-read-shrinkage | permit | Model::"inventory_shrinkage" |
vendor-blocked | forbid | Model::"labor_*" |
fuel-team-forecourt | permit | Model::"fuel_transactions" |
Why Customer matters for Convenience retail
The 6:30 AM coffee buyer and the 9 PM snack buyer are fundamentally different shoppers, even when they're the same person. Ward analyzes transaction patterns by daypart to identify mission-based behaviors and cross-sell opportunities within each mission, focusing on basket-level patterns rather than individual customer tracking.
What Ward has eyes on.
Ward pulls from Power BI rather than replacing it. Power BI REST API datasets, underlying SQL/Azure data, dataflow outputs come across on a read-only connection, get enriched with contextual data, and come back as findings. Your BI is untouched.
Understand the person behind the basket. Ward runs the model continuously rather than on a reporting cycle, which is why a finding lands the morning the pattern starts instead of at the end of the period.
Every one of your locations gets its own baseline. Ward monitors transactions/hour, attach rate, basket size against it and raises only the deviations that hold up. The two that show up most in convenience retail are daypart demand variation and planogram compliance, and both are baseline problems before they are P&L problems.
At the metric level. Ward segments by daypart mission, tracks attach rates within each mission, measures layout and adjacency effects on cross-purchase, and monitors fuel-to-inside conversion as a key traffic metric.
Why this combination
is its own problem.
The loss prevention problem in convenience retail is not missing data. It is that transactions/hour, attach rate, basket size live in different systems on different refresh schedules, and reconciling them is a person-week. Ward does the reconciliation and sends the two-line version.
- 01 Loyalty programs cover under 30% of c-store transactions, so customer-level analysis misses most of the volume; basket-mission analysis catches what loyalty data can't.
- 02 Fuel-to-inside conversion is treated as a fixed location attribute when it actually moves with canopy promotion, store cleanliness, and inside merchandising.
Benchmarks. C-store morning rush coffee-to-food attach: 20-35% chain average, with top performers above 50%. Fuel-to-inside conversion: 25-45% with wide variation by canopy promotion and inside merchandising. Each percentage point of attach gain is typically worth 0.5-1.5% same-store inside revenue.
What the first 90 days
actually look like.
-
01
Week 1: connect
Read-only credentials to Microsoft Power BI. Ward pulls from power BI REST API datasets, underlying SQL/Azure data, dataflow outputs and starts building baselines. First findings land inside 48 hours, before baselines are stable, so you can see the shape of the output early.
-
02
Weeks 2 to 3: calibration
Baselines stabilize per store and per category. Ward stops flagging normal variance and starts flagging exceptions. This is the window where the false positive rate drops sharply.
-
03
Weeks 4 to 12: steady state
Ward hands you findings each day, each with the cause and the next step. Volume settles at a level a single person can read over coffee. The measure of success is not how many daily cards arrive, it is how many get acted on.
How Ward connects to Microsoft Power BI
Ward sits alongside Power BI. Your dashboards visualize. Ward detects and explains what changed. No dashboard login needed for your morning brief.
Setup: Ward connects to the same data sources Power BI uses. Or reads Power BI datasets via REST API. Your reports stay untouched.
Data Ward reads from Power BI
Impact metrics with Power BI
Data lake enrichment
Ward enriches Power BI data with: Power BI datasets, Underlying SQL/Azure data, Weather & events, Demographics, Custom feeds
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where.
- ×Shrinkage lands as a year-end surprise
- ×Cannot distinguish theft from spoilage from admin error
- ×High-shrinkage stores only identified during audits
- ×No correlation between operational changes and loss patterns
- ×Exception-based reporting misses slow-bleed patterns
- ✓Store-level shrinkage tracking with cause attribution
- ✓Anomaly detection flags stores deviating from estate average
- ✓Receiving dock discrepancy patterns identified automatically
- ✓Correlation analysis links operational changes to loss shifts
- ✓Trend analysis catches slow-bleed patterns audits miss
US retail shrinkage hit $112.1 billion in 2022. Up 19.4% year over year. Source: National Retail Federation
Convenience KPI impact
Frequently asked questions
Ward tracks basket composition shifts, daypart patterns, and customer segment migration. For Convenience retail specifically, Ward monitors 3,000+ SKUs across your locations and delivers automated insight cards with root cause analysis and recommended actions.
Ward tracks Transactions/hour, Attach rate, Basket size, Planogram compliance, Daypart mix at the store-category level. Ward analyzes transaction-level data to detect shifts in basket composition, shopping frequency, daypart preferences, and segment movement.
Ward connects to the same data sources Power BI uses. Or reads Power BI datasets via REST API. Your reports stay untouched. Data points include: Power BI REST API datasets, Underlying SQL/Azure data, Dataflow outputs.
Yes. Ward reads Power BI data and combines it with contextual signals (weather, events, demographics) to generate Convenience-specific insight cards. No custom development required.
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Store-level shrinkage tracking with cause attribution. Anomaly detection flags stores deviating from estate average. Receiving dock discrepancy patterns identified automatically.
Ward delivers daily insight cards covering Transactions/hour, Attach rate, Basket size, tailored for Loss Prevention decision-making. Each card includes what changed, why it matters, and what to do next.
Ward segments by daypart mission, tracks attach rates within each mission, measures layout and adjacency effects on cross-purchase, and monitors fuel-to-inside conversion as a key traffic metric.
Ward reveals a clear split in morning rush transactions: most are coffee-only with low basket value, while the minority adding food have baskets several times larger. Stores with breakfast displayed adjacent to the coffee station convert significantly more coffee-only customers to coffee-plus-food than stores requiring a separate trip down an aisle. Ward recommends a layout test moving grab-and-go breakfast next to the coffee bar at the lowest-converting stores.
First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.
No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.
Related solutions
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Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.
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