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Shrinkage Detection for Home on NetSuite, built for supply chain

Find the leak before it drains you. Ward runs it on NetSuite data across your home fleet, scoped to supply chain.

The full picture: home shrinkage, NetSuite data, Supply Chain decisions

You find out about stockouts after customers do. Ward filters to what a VP Supply Chain can act on and drops the rest.

Shrinkage Detection, in one sentence. Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error.

For Home Improvement retailers, that means watching 50,000+ SKUs throughout stores. Project-based purchasing, long-tail SKUs, and seasonal volatility. Ward manages the complexity of 50,000+ SKU environments with ease.

Under the hood. Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

Setup: Ward connects via SuiteTalk REST or SOAP APIs. Token-based authentication. Read-only access to your NetSuite instance.

The short list

  • Store-vs-estate benchmarking
  • Receiving dock anomaly detection
  • Pattern recognition across time
  • Cause-level shrinkage attribution
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Home @Merchandising: Seasonal Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why did the spring mulch pre-build miss in the Southeast?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Merchandising Agent

I pulled the spring pre-build against the last three seasons and the weather signal for the 22 Southeast stores.

SignalFinding
seasonal_prebuildMulch on-hand hit 61% of plan the week temps broke 70°F
dc_pushDC push started 9 days after the first-warm-week trigger, LY it was 2
attach.projectSoil and edging attach fell 18% at stores that gapped on mulch

Recommend: tie the push trigger to the 10-day forecast instead of the calendar week, pre-position two truckloads at the 8 stores that gapped, and re-set the attach endcap.

9 parallel queries 4 sources cited confidence 0.88
Which stores get the pre-position first?
You · 9:43 AM
Supply Chain Agent · ranking stores
Querying seasonal_prebuild
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Reporting

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.

7d13w52w
Revenue vs. plan
$57.3M
+2.9% WoW
Gross margin, seasonal
31.2%
−2.4pp
Mulch on-hand vs plan
61.4%
−18pp
Special order cycle time
11.6 d
+3.1 days
Revenue vs. plan 13 weeks actual, 6 weeks forecast, 80% interval
Actual Forecast 80% interval
% of plan 106 94 100 forecast → W−13 W−5 today +6wk
Holt-Winters + weather regressor MAPE 4.1% at 4wk Backtested 24 months Crosses plan in 3 weeks
Forecast error by horizon MAPE, 24-month backtest
1wk 2.1%
2wk 3.0%
4wk 4.1%
8wk 6.3%
13wk 8.9%
Accuracy bar for promo decisions: ≤5% at 4wk
Models in production Every forecast ships a model card
ModelHorizonMAPE
holt_winters4wk4.1%
arima_sarimax13wk8.9%
gbm_demand1wk2.1%
bayes_hiernew store11.4%

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
epicor_pos_transactionsimport2m ago
epicor_special_ordersimport2m ago
netsuite_inventory_snapshotimport14m ago
retail_seasonal_prebuildimport1h ago
retail_sku_velocityimport1h ago
retail_pro_account_salesimport1h ago
retail_weather_dailyimport1h ago

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
merch-read-defaultpermitModel::*
pro-team-read-accountspermitModel::"pro_account_sales"
vendor-blockedforbidModel::"labor_*"
supply-read-orderspermitModel::"special_orders"
Shrinkage for Home on NetSuite data, live product demo.

Why Shrinkage matters for Home retail

Small hardware has the highest per-unit theft rates but lowest dollar impact; power tools have lower frequency but massive loss per incident. Ward segments shrinkage by value tier and department so loss prevention allocates resources where the dollar impact is highest, not just where the unit count is.

What Ward has eyes on.

Ward reads NetSuite rather than replacing it. Sales orders, inventory, purchase orders come across on a read-only connection, get enriched with contextual data, and come back as cards. Your ERP is untouched.

Find the leak before it drains you. Ward runs the model continuously rather than on a reporting cycle, which is why a finding lands the morning the pattern starts instead of at the end of the period.

Every one of your stores gets its own baseline. Ward keeps a running read on project basket value, seasonal accuracy, long-tail turn against it and brings up only the deviations that hold up. The two that show up most in home retail are project basket identification and seasonal pre-positioning, and both are baseline problems before they are P&L problems.

At the metric level. Ward segments by value tier, tracks geographic clustering for ORC detection, monitors receiving accuracy on bulk/pallet deliveries, and measures POS velocity-to-inventory count gaps.

Signals · POS at SKU-store-shift, receiving logs and PO variance, store geocodes for ORC clustering, employee schedules, and category-value-tier overlays.

Why this combination
is its own problem.

Shrinkage Detection needs sales orders and inventory at minimum. Oracle NetSuite carries both, at the grain the model needs. That is the whole integration story: no middleware, no staging warehouse, no custom extract.

  • 01 High-volume small hardware shrink dominates incident counts and pulls LP attention toward unit-level fixes; the bigger dollar exposure is in low-frequency power tool theft.
  • 02 Pallet receiving discrepancies on building materials (lumber, drywall, roofing) often don't surface until the next physical because random sampling rarely catches the missing units.

Benchmarks. Home improvement shrink runs 1.4-2.6% of sales, with power tools, copper, and high-value building materials accounting for 30-50% of total dollar shrink despite small unit volume. ORC events typically affect a tight geographic cluster of 5-15 stores.

What the first 90 days
actually look like.

  1. 01

    Week 1: read-only connection

    Ward connects to Oracle NetSuite with read-only credentials and begins ingesting sales orders and inventory. No config changes on your side. First findings arrive within 48 hours.

  2. 02

    Weeks 2 to 3: calibration

    Baselines stabilize per store and per category. Ward stops flagging normal variance and starts flagging exceptions. This is the window where the false positive rate drops sharply.

  3. 03

    Weeks 4 to 12: operating rhythm

    Insight cards arrive daily and get triaged like any other queue. Most teams find the volume settles into something one person clears in ten minutes. What matters is the action rate, not the alert count.

How Ward connects to Oracle NetSuite

Ward integrates with NetSuite SuiteCommerce, inventory management, and financials. Mid-market retailers get enterprise-grade insight cards.

Setup: Ward connects via SuiteTalk REST or SOAP APIs. Token-based authentication. Read-only access to your NetSuite instance.

Data Ward reads from NetSuite

Sales orders
Inventory
Purchase orders
Customer records
Financial summaries
Item fulfillment

Impact metrics with NetSuite

Inventory Accuracy
Discrepancies reconciled live
POS and fulfillment data cross-checked against NetSuite counts.
Order Fill Rate
Stockouts preempted
Demand forecasting layered onto NetSuite purchase orders.
Gross Margin
Margin erosion flagged
Pricing drift and vendor cost creep caught across financials.
Cash Conversion Cycle
Days of supply reduced
Demand-inventory alignment frees tied working capital.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches NetSuite data with: Sales orders, Weather & events, Customer segments, Vendor performance, Market pricing data

You find out about stockouts after customers do.

Pain points
  • ×Demand forecasts are off by 15-25% and nobody catches it until the shelf is empty
  • ×Supplier fill rate problems announce themselves at the receiving dock
  • ×Safety stock levels get set once a year and left alone
  • ×No early warning system for supply chain disruptions
  • ×Replenishment exceptions require manual triage every morning
How Ward helps
  • Stockout prediction cards arrive 24-72 hours before empty shelves
  • Supplier fill rate tracking with automatic escalation
  • Dynamic safety stock recommendations based on current demand signals
  • Weather, event, and macro-driven demand adjustments
  • Replenishment exceptions auto-prioritized by revenue impact

Stockouts cost retailers $1.14 trillion in missed sales globally each year. Source: IHL Group

Home KPI impact

Seasonal Accuracy
Weather + event driven
Pre-positioning adjusted for peak season signals.
Long-Tail Turn
Dead weight separated
Which tail SKUs serve project needs vs sit idle.
Project Basket Value
Cross-sell surfaced
Project purchasing patterns drive attachment.
Inventory Carrying Cost
Capital freed
Demand forecasting reduces slow-moving overstock.

Frequently asked questions

Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error. For Home retail specifically, Ward monitors 50,000+ SKUs across your stores and delivers automated insight cards with root cause analysis and recommended actions.

Ward tracks Project basket value, Seasonal accuracy, Long-tail turn, Pro customer share, Attachment rate at the store-category level. Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

Ward connects via SuiteTalk REST or SOAP APIs. Token-based authentication. Read-only access to your NetSuite instance. Data points include: Sales orders, Inventory, Purchase orders, Customer records, Financial summaries, Item fulfillment.

Yes. Ward reads NetSuite data and combines it with contextual signals (weather, events, demographics) to generate Home-specific insight cards. No custom development required.

You find out about stockouts after customers do. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Stockout prediction cards arrive 24-72 hours before empty shelves. Supplier fill rate tracking with automatic escalation. Dynamic safety stock recommendations based on current demand signals.

Ward delivers daily insight cards covering Project basket value, Seasonal accuracy, Long-tail turn, tailored for Supply Chain decision-making. Each card includes what changed, why it matters, and what to do next.

Ward segments by value tier, tracks geographic clustering for ORC detection, monitors receiving accuracy on bulk/pallet deliveries, and measures POS velocity-to-inventory count gaps.

Ward flags elevated power tool shrinkage at a geographic cluster of stores, concentrated during weekday afternoons, a pattern consistent with organized retail crime. Ward recommends immediate spider-wrap enforcement and receipt-checking at affected locations. LP investigation confirms a theft ring, and targeted intervention brings shrinkage back toward estate averages within weeks.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

See what Home shrinkage problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

Step 1 of 3
What are your goals?
Step 2 of 3
About your operation
Step 3 of 3
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