Shrinkage · BigCommerce · Head of E-Com

Shrinkage Detection for Head of E-Commerce / Digital, read from BigCommerce

Find the leak before it drains you. Ward runs it off BigCommerce, scoped to what a Head of E-Com owns.

Shrinkage Detection on BigCommerce, for e-commerce

Shrinkage Detection is a insight card type Ward runs continuously. Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error.

Your online and offline data live in different worlds. Ward filters to what a Head of E-Com can act on and drops the rest.

How it runs. Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

Setup: Ward connects via BigCommerce REST API with OAuth. Webhooks for real-time order and inventory events.

What it does

  • Cause-level shrinkage attribution
  • Store-vs-estate benchmarking
  • Receiving dock anomaly detection
  • Pattern recognition across time
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Retail @Merchandising: VP Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why did Store 37 miss target last week?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Merchandising Agent

I pulled Store 37’s last 28 days against the chain baseline. Two root causes, both compounding.

SignalFinding
labor_efficiencyRev/labor-hour −22% vs. cluster, staffing mismatch at 11a–1p peak
inventory.freshFresh fill 83%, backroom replenishment lag at 2–4p
promo.liftBOGO crackers cannibalized Brand Y by 28%, net category +6%

Recommend: re-baseline Store 37 schedule against true peak, raise replen window to 1p, and review the BOGO before next cycle.

8 parallel queries 3 sources cited confidence 0.92
Show me how to fix the staffing mismatch.
You · 9:43 AM
Labor Agent · drafting schedule diff
Querying labor_scheduling
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Reporting

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.

7d13w52w
Revenue vs. forecast
$48.2M
+4.2% WoW
Gross margin %
24.1%
−3.2pp
Fill rate, fresh
83.4%
−4.1pp
Shrink, West region
2.41%
+0.8pp
Revenue vs. forecast 13 weeks actual, 6 weeks forecast, 80% interval
Actual Forecast 80% interval
% of plan 106 94 100 forecast → W−13 W−5 today +6wk
Holt-Winters + weather regressor MAPE 4.1% at 4wk Backtested 24 months Crosses plan in 3 weeks
Forecast error by horizon MAPE, 24-month backtest
1wk 2.1%
2wk 3.0%
4wk 4.1%
8wk 6.3%
13wk 8.9%
Accuracy bar for promo decisions: ≤5% at 4wk
Models in production Every forecast ships a model card
ModelHorizonMAPE
holt_winters4wk4.1%
arima_sarimax13wk8.9%
gbm_demand1wk2.1%
bayes_hiernew store11.4%

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
sap_pos_transactionsimport2m ago
sap_inventory_shrinkageimport2m ago
sap_labor_schedulingimport14m ago
retail_inventory_weeklyimport1h ago
retail_google_ads_dailyimport1h ago
retail_meta_ads_dailyimport1h ago
retail_ga4_website_dailyimport1h ago

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
merch-read-defaultpermitModel::*
finance-read-shrinkagepermitModel::"inventory_shrinkage"
vendor-blockedforbidModel::"labor_*"
region-west-onlypermitTenant::"acme"
Shrinkage on BigCommerce data, live product demo.

Why this combination
is its own problem.

Shrinkage Detection needs orders and products & variants at minimum. BigCommerce carries both, at the grain the model needs. That is the whole integration story: no middleware, no staging warehouse, no custom extract.

What Ward has eyes on.

The connection to BigCommerce is read-only and runs on your schedule. Ward pulls from orders, products & variants, and the rest of the feed, then stitches together it with external context your Commerce does not carry: weather, local events, competitor pricing.

The shrinkage model runs each day, not on a reporting calendar. It picks up the pattern, traces the cause, and attaches a recommended action before the number reaches a review deck.

What the first 90 days
actually look like.

  1. 01

    Week 1: connect

    Read-only credentials to BigCommerce. Ward ingests orders, products & variants, customers and starts building baselines. First daily cards land inside 48 hours, before baselines are stable, so you can see the shape of the output early.

  2. 02

    Weeks 2 to 3: baselines

    Ward needs roughly two weeks of history per store to separate a real deviation from normal variance. During this window the insight cards are directionally right and the thresholds are still moving.

  3. 03

    Weeks 4 to 12: operating rhythm

    Findings arrive each day and get triaged like any other queue. Most teams find the volume settles into something one person clears in ten minutes. What matters is the action rate, not the alert count.

How Ward connects to BigCommerce

Ward connects to BigCommerce for omnichannel retailers running headless or traditional storefronts. Orders, catalog, and customer data drive insight cards.

Setup: Ward connects via BigCommerce REST API with OAuth. Webhooks for real-time order and inventory events.

Data Ward reads from BigCommerce

Orders
Products & variants
Customers
Inventory
Promotions
Storefront analytics

Impact metrics with BigCommerce

Sell-Through Rate
Velocity tracked live
Slow movers flagged early enough to reallocate inventory.
Customer LTV
Churn risk identified
Cohort analysis surfaces lapsing buyers and re-engagement timing.
Conversion Rate
Buyer vs browser split
Patterns that convert separated from those that just browse.
Inventory Turnover
Reorder cadence optimized
Demand signals calibrate reorder points across the catalog.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches BigCommerce data with: Orders & variants, Customer behavior, Marketing data, Returns & exchanges, Competitor pricing

Your online and offline data live in different worlds.

Pain points
  • ×Nobody can see one inventory position across every channel
  • ×Online promo performance is measured separately from in-store
  • ×Customer behavior data is siloed by channel
  • ×BOPIS/BORIS operational complexity is growing unchecked
  • ×Digital marketing attribution stops at the click
How Ward helps
  • Unified insight cards across online and in-store channels
  • Cross-channel promo effectiveness with true attribution
  • Customer journey tracking across digital and physical touchpoints
  • BOPIS fulfillment performance monitoring with exception cards
  • Full-funnel marketing attribution to in-store conversion

Retailers with unified omnichannel data see 30% higher lifetime value per customer. Source: Harvard Business Review

Frequently asked questions

Ward connects via BigCommerce REST API with OAuth. Webhooks for real-time order and inventory events. Data points include: Orders, Products & variants, Customers, Inventory, Promotions, Storefront analytics.

Your online and offline data live in different worlds. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Unified insight cards across online and in-store channels. Cross-channel promo effectiveness with true attribution. Customer journey tracking across digital and physical touchpoints.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

See what shrinkage problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

Step 1 of 3
What are your goals?
Step 2 of 3
About your operation
Step 3 of 3
Your contact info