Head of LP: stockout straight off Lightspeed
Ward ingests sales transactions, inventory counts, customer profiles from Lightspeed Retail, runs stockout on it, and hands back the loss prevention read every morning.
How a Head of LP runs stockout off Lightspeed Retail
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where. Ward pulls forward the inputs that change a loss prevention decision.
Here is stockout prediction in plain terms. Ward detects SKUs trending toward zero-on-hand and alerts your team with replenishment recommendations before customers notice.
How Ward hands back Stockout insight cards: Ward analyzes sell-through velocity, current inventory levels, lead times, and supplier reliability to predict stockouts 24-72 hours before they occur.
Setup: Ward connects via Lightspeed Retail API. OAuth-based authentication. Read-only access.
What you get
- Reduce lost sales by catching gaps early
- Automated replenishment recommendations
- Supplier-aware lead time modeling
- Priority ranking by revenue impact
Chat
Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.
I pulled Store 37’s last 28 days against the chain baseline. Two root causes, both compounding.
| Signal | Finding |
|---|---|
labor_efficiency | Rev/labor-hour −22% vs. cluster, staffing mismatch at 11a–1p peak |
inventory.fresh | Fresh fill 83%, backroom replenishment lag at 2–4p |
promo.lift | BOGO crackers cannibalized Brand Y by 28%, net category +6% |
Recommend: re-baseline Store 37 schedule against true peak, raise replen window to 1p, and review the BOGO before next cycle.
labor_scheduling…
Reporting
Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.
| Model | Horizon | MAPE |
|---|---|---|
holt_winters | 4wk | 4.1% |
arima_sarimax | 13wk | 8.9% |
gbm_demand | 1wk | 2.1% |
bayes_hier | new store | 11.4% |
Sources
Connect external systems to the data lake.
| Name | Type | Last sync |
|---|---|---|
sap_pos_transactions | import | 2m ago |
sap_inventory_shrinkage | import | 2m ago |
sap_labor_scheduling | import | 14m ago |
retail_inventory_weekly | import | 1h ago |
retail_google_ads_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_meta_ads_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_ga4_website_daily | import | 1h ago |
Policies
Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.
| Policy ID | Effect | Resources |
|---|---|---|
merch-read-default | permit | Model::* |
finance-read-shrinkage | permit | Model::"inventory_shrinkage" |
vendor-blocked | forbid | Model::"labor_*" |
region-west-only | permit | Tenant::"acme" |
What Ward has eyes on.
The connection to Lightspeed Retail is read-only and runs on your schedule. Ward ingests sales transactions, inventory counts, and the rest of the feed, then joins it with external context your POS does not carry: weather, local events, competitor pricing.
Know before the shelf empties. Ward runs the model continuously rather than on a reporting cycle, which is why a finding lands the morning the pattern starts instead of at the end of the period.
Why this combination
is its own problem.
Stockout Prediction needs sales transactions and inventory counts at minimum. Lightspeed Retail carries both, at the grain the model needs. That is the whole integration story: no middleware, no staging warehouse, no custom extract.
What the first 90 days
actually look like.
-
01
Week 1: read-only connection
Ward reads from Lightspeed Retail with read-only credentials and begins ingesting sales transactions and inventory counts. No config changes on your side. First findings arrive within 48 hours.
-
02
Weeks 2 to 3: calibration
Baselines stabilize per store and per category. Ward stops flagging normal variance and starts flagging exceptions. This is the window where the false positive rate drops sharply.
-
03
Weeks 4 to 12: operating rhythm
Daily cards arrive daily and get triaged like any other queue. Most teams find the volume settles into something one person clears in ten minutes. What matters is the action rate, not the alert count.
How Ward connects to Lightspeed Retail
Ward integrates with Lightspeed Retail POS for specialty and boutique retailers. In-store transaction data powers customer behavior and assortment insight cards.
Setup: Ward connects via Lightspeed Retail API. OAuth-based authentication. Read-only access.
Data Ward reads from Lightspeed
Impact metrics with Lightspeed
Data lake enrichment
Ward enriches Lightspeed data with: Sales transactions, Customer profiles, Weather & events, Competitor data, Demographic data
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where.
- ×Shrinkage lands as a year-end surprise
- ×Cannot distinguish theft from spoilage from admin error
- ×High-shrinkage stores only identified during audits
- ×No correlation between operational changes and loss patterns
- ×Exception-based reporting misses slow-bleed patterns
- ✓Store-level shrinkage tracking with cause attribution
- ✓Anomaly detection flags stores deviating from estate average
- ✓Receiving dock discrepancy patterns identified automatically
- ✓Correlation analysis links operational changes to loss shifts
- ✓Trend analysis catches slow-bleed patterns audits miss
US retail shrinkage hit $112.1 billion in 2022. Up 19.4% year over year. Source: National Retail Federation
Frequently asked questions
Ward connects via Lightspeed Retail API. OAuth-based authentication. Read-only access. Data points include: Sales transactions, Inventory counts, Customer profiles, Purchase orders, Employee performance.
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Store-level shrinkage tracking with cause attribution. Anomaly detection flags stores deviating from estate average. Receiving dock discrepancy patterns identified automatically.
First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.
No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.
Related solutions
See what stockout problems Ward catches.
Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.
Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly
Find out what your data has been hiding.
Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.