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Fill Rate Monitoring for Home Improvement on BigQuery

Home retailers on BigQuery run fill rate through Ward. 50,000+ SKUs over your stores, scans continuously around the clock.

Fill Rate Monitoring for Home Improvement, running on BigQuery

Applied to Home Improvement, the surface area is 50,000+ SKUs over stores. Project-based purchasing, long-tail SKUs, and seasonal volatility. Ward manages the complexity of 50,000+ SKU environments with ease.

Fill Rate Monitoring is a insight card type Ward runs continuously. Ward monitors on-shelf availability across your entire estate and flags stores or categories dropping below threshold.

The mechanism. Ward tracks expected vs actual on-shelf availability at the store-category level and escalates when fill rate drops below configurable thresholds.

How the connection works. Service account with BigQuery Data Viewer role. Ward runs read-only SQL queries on your schedule.

What it does

  • Category-level drill-down
  • Estate-wide fill rate dashboard
  • Threshold-based alerting
  • Store-vs-estate benchmarking
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Home @Merchandising: Seasonal Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why did the spring mulch pre-build miss in the Southeast?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Merchandising Agent

I pulled the spring pre-build against the last three seasons and the weather signal for the 22 Southeast stores.

SignalFinding
seasonal_prebuildMulch on-hand hit 61% of plan the week temps broke 70°F
dc_pushDC push started 9 days after the first-warm-week trigger, LY it was 2
attach.projectSoil and edging attach fell 18% at stores that gapped on mulch

Recommend: tie the push trigger to the 10-day forecast instead of the calendar week, pre-position two truckloads at the 8 stores that gapped, and re-set the attach endcap.

9 parallel queries 4 sources cited confidence 0.88
Which stores get the pre-position first?
You · 9:43 AM
Supply Chain Agent · ranking stores
Querying seasonal_prebuild
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Reporting

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.

7d13w52w
Revenue vs. plan
$57.3M
+2.9% WoW
Gross margin, seasonal
31.2%
−2.4pp
Mulch on-hand vs plan
61.4%
−18pp
Special order cycle time
11.6 d
+3.1 days
Revenue vs. plan 13 weeks actual, 6 weeks forecast, 80% interval
Actual Forecast 80% interval
% of plan 106 94 100 forecast → W−13 W−5 today +6wk
Holt-Winters + weather regressor MAPE 4.1% at 4wk Backtested 24 months Crosses plan in 3 weeks
Forecast error by horizon MAPE, 24-month backtest
1wk 2.1%
2wk 3.0%
4wk 4.1%
8wk 6.3%
13wk 8.9%
Accuracy bar for promo decisions: ≤5% at 4wk
Models in production Every forecast ships a model card
ModelHorizonMAPE
holt_winters4wk4.1%
arima_sarimax13wk8.9%
gbm_demand1wk2.1%
bayes_hiernew store11.4%

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
epicor_pos_transactionsimport2m ago
epicor_special_ordersimport2m ago
netsuite_inventory_snapshotimport14m ago
retail_seasonal_prebuildimport1h ago
retail_sku_velocityimport1h ago
retail_pro_account_salesimport1h ago
retail_weather_dailyimport1h ago

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
merch-read-defaultpermitModel::*
pro-team-read-accountspermitModel::"pro_account_sales"
vendor-blockedforbidModel::"labor_*"
supply-read-orderspermitModel::"special_orders"
Fill Rate for Home on BigQuery data, live product demo.

Why Fill Rate matters for Home retail

A store can report 96% fill rate while missing the one fastener that completes every deck project basket. Ward monitors fill rate through a project-basket lens, flagging when project-critical items drop below threshold even if aggregate availability looks healthy.

What Ward has eyes on.

Ward keeps a running read on 50,000+ SKUs throughout your stores, at the store-category level rather than the chain roll-up. The metrics under watch include project basket value, seasonal accuracy, long-tail turn. A roll-up hides a single-store problem inside a healthy average, which is how project basket identification stays invisible for a quarter.

Ward pulls from any BigQuery dataset, gA4 event exports, ads data transfers from Google BigQuery on a read-only connection. Nothing is written back, and your Data Platform configuration does not change. BigQuery stays the system of record.

The fill rate model runs every morning, not on a reporting calendar. It spots the pattern, traces the cause, and attaches what to do about it before the number reaches a review deck.

At the metric level. Ward tracks project-basket completion rates, department availability with project-dependency weighting, seasonal merchandise positioning timing, and Pro customer order-fill rates, since Pros expect near-perfect availability and defect immediately on gaps.

Signals · POS at SKU-store-day with basket linkage, current inventory positions, Pro account order history, planogram and endcap positions, and project basket affinity graph.

Why this combination
is its own problem.

Most fill rate projects stall at data access. This one does not, because BigQuery already exposes any BigQuery dataset, gA4 event exports, ads data transfers through an API Ward reads directly.

  • 01 Fill rate measured at the SKU level masks project-basket completion; a deck-project basket that needs 12 SKUs has a much lower complete-basket availability than any individual SKU's availability suggests.
  • 02 Pro customer order fill rate is benchmarked against estate-wide DIY fill, hiding the much steeper Pro defection curve when a flagged SKU goes out of stock.

Benchmarks. Home improvement project-basket completion: healthy chains run 88-94% on the top-100 project baskets; below 80% on a top basket cuts category revenue 3-7% over the affected weeks. Pro customer fill rate matters disproportionately, Pros typically defect after 2-3 stockouts on flagged SKUs.

What the first 90 days
actually look like.

  1. 01

    Week 1: read-only connection

    Ward connects to Google BigQuery with read-only credentials and begins ingesting any BigQuery dataset and gA4 event exports. No config changes on your side. First cards arrive inside the first 48 hours.

  2. 02

    Weeks 2 to 3: calibration

    Baselines stabilize per store and per category. Ward stops flagging normal variance and starts flagging exceptions. This is the window where the false positive rate drops sharply.

  3. 03

    Weeks 4 to 12: steady state

    Ward delivers insight cards daily, each with the cause and the next step. Volume settles at a level a single person can read over coffee. The measure of success is not how many cards arrive, it is how many get acted on.

How Ward connects to Google BigQuery

Ward queries BigQuery using your existing datasets. GA4 exports, POS data, CRM exports. Ward reads it where it lives.

Setup: Service account with BigQuery Data Viewer role. Ward runs read-only SQL queries on your schedule.

Data Ward reads from BigQuery

Any BigQuery dataset
GA4 event exports
Ads data transfers
Custom ETL outputs

Impact metrics with BigQuery

Time to Insight
No staging required
GA4, POS, and CRM datasets queried in place.
Marketing Attribution
Online-offline linked
GA4 events joined with in-store POS to close attribution gaps.
Data Activation
Historical data made queryable
Years of unqueried BigQuery data brought into analysis.
Anomaly Detection Speed
Always-on monitoring
Deviations caught between scheduled dashboard reviews.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches BigQuery data with: Any BigQuery dataset, GA4 event exports, Weather & events, Demographics, Custom feeds

Home KPI impact

Seasonal Accuracy
Weather + event driven
Pre-positioning adjusted for peak season signals.
Long-Tail Turn
Dead weight separated
Which tail SKUs serve project needs vs sit idle.
Project Basket Value
Cross-sell surfaced
Project purchasing patterns drive attachment.
Inventory Carrying Cost
Capital freed
Demand forecasting reduces slow-moving overstock.

Frequently asked questions

Ward monitors on-shelf availability across your entire estate and flags stores or categories dropping below threshold. For Home retail specifically, Ward monitors 50,000+ SKUs across your stores and delivers automated insight cards with root cause analysis and recommended actions.

Ward tracks Project basket value, Seasonal accuracy, Long-tail turn, Pro customer share, Attachment rate at the store-category level. Ward tracks expected vs actual on-shelf availability at the store-category level and escalates when fill rate drops below configurable thresholds.

Service account with BigQuery Data Viewer role. Ward runs read-only SQL queries on your schedule. Data points include: Any BigQuery dataset, GA4 event exports, Ads data transfers, Custom ETL outputs.

Yes. Ward reads BigQuery data and combines it with contextual signals (weather, events, demographics) to generate Home-specific insight cards. No custom development required.

Ward tracks project-basket completion rates, department availability with project-dependency weighting, seasonal merchandise positioning timing, and Pro customer order-fill rates, since Pros expect near-perfect availability and defect immediately on gaps.

Estate-wide fill rate looks healthy, but Ward's project-basket analysis shows the "deck build" basket has far lower complete-basket availability because a single specialty fastener is out of stock. A standard fill rate report would bury this item among 50,000 others. Ward surfaces it through basket completion analysis, and the supply chain team expedites the item to restore project-level availability within days.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

See what Home fill rate problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

Step 1 of 3
What are your goals?
Step 2 of 3
About your operation
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