Home · Shrinkage · SAP

Home shrinkage, read from SAP Retail

Find the leak before it drains you. Ward runs it on SAP data over your home estate, without a warehouse project first.

How Ward turns SAP data into home shrinkage

Applied to Home Improvement, the surface area is 50,000+ SKUs throughout stores. Project-based purchasing, long-tail SKUs, and seasonal volatility. Ward manages the complexity of 50,000+ SKU environments with ease.

Shrinkage Detection, in one sentence. Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error.

How Ward hands back Shrinkage daily cards: Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

Getting the data in. Ward reads from SAP via RFC/BAPI or OData APIs. No changes to your SAP configuration. Read-only access. Data syncs on your schedule.

What it does

  • Receiving dock anomaly detection
  • Pattern recognition across time
  • Cause-level shrinkage attribution
  • Store-vs-estate benchmarking
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Home @Merchandising: Seasonal Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why did the spring mulch pre-build miss in the Southeast?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Merchandising Agent

I pulled the spring pre-build against the last three seasons and the weather signal for the 22 Southeast stores.

SignalFinding
seasonal_prebuildMulch on-hand hit 61% of plan the week temps broke 70°F
dc_pushDC push started 9 days after the first-warm-week trigger, LY it was 2
attach.projectSoil and edging attach fell 18% at stores that gapped on mulch

Recommend: tie the push trigger to the 10-day forecast instead of the calendar week, pre-position two truckloads at the 8 stores that gapped, and re-set the attach endcap.

9 parallel queries 4 sources cited confidence 0.88
Which stores get the pre-position first?
You · 9:43 AM
Supply Chain Agent · ranking stores
Querying seasonal_prebuild
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Reporting

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.

7d13w52w
Revenue vs. plan
$57.3M
+2.9% WoW
Gross margin, seasonal
31.2%
−2.4pp
Mulch on-hand vs plan
61.4%
−18pp
Special order cycle time
11.6 d
+3.1 days
Revenue vs. plan 13 weeks actual, 6 weeks forecast, 80% interval
Actual Forecast 80% interval
% of plan 106 94 100 forecast → W−13 W−5 today +6wk
Holt-Winters + weather regressor MAPE 4.1% at 4wk Backtested 24 months Crosses plan in 3 weeks
Forecast error by horizon MAPE, 24-month backtest
1wk 2.1%
2wk 3.0%
4wk 4.1%
8wk 6.3%
13wk 8.9%
Accuracy bar for promo decisions: ≤5% at 4wk
Models in production Every forecast ships a model card
ModelHorizonMAPE
holt_winters4wk4.1%
arima_sarimax13wk8.9%
gbm_demand1wk2.1%
bayes_hiernew store11.4%

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
epicor_pos_transactionsimport2m ago
epicor_special_ordersimport2m ago
netsuite_inventory_snapshotimport14m ago
retail_seasonal_prebuildimport1h ago
retail_sku_velocityimport1h ago
retail_pro_account_salesimport1h ago
retail_weather_dailyimport1h ago

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
merch-read-defaultpermitModel::*
pro-team-read-accountspermitModel::"pro_account_sales"
vendor-blockedforbidModel::"labor_*"
supply-read-orderspermitModel::"special_orders"
Shrinkage for Home on SAP data, live product demo.

Why Shrinkage matters for Home retail

Small hardware has the highest per-unit theft rates but lowest dollar impact; power tools have lower frequency but massive loss per incident. Ward segments shrinkage by value tier and department so loss prevention allocates resources where the dollar impact is highest, not just where the unit count is.

Why this combination
is its own problem.

SAP Retail is the system of record for most home operators of your size, which means the signals Ward needs are already there. The gap is not data collection. It is that nobody has time to read POS transactions and inventory positions every morning over every store.

  • 01 ORC patterns concentrate geographically; chain-wide LP allocation misses the cluster signal that directs investigative focus.
  • 02 Pallet receiving discrepancies on building materials (lumber, drywall, roofing) often don't surface until the next physical because random sampling rarely catches the missing units.

Benchmarks. Home improvement shrink runs 1.4-2.6% of sales, with power tools, copper, and high-value building materials accounting for 30-50% of total dollar shrink despite small unit volume. ORC events typically affect a tight geographic cluster of 5-15 stores.

What Ward has eyes on.

Coverage is store by store, category by category. Ward watches project basket value, seasonal accuracy, long-tail turn across 50,000+ SKUs and compares each store against its own baseline, not against the chain. That is the difference between knowing the store base is fine and knowing which seven stores are not.

The connection to SAP Retail is read-only and runs on your schedule. Ward reads straight from POS transactions, inventory positions, and the rest of the feed, then combines it with external context your ERP does not carry: weather, local events, competitor pricing.

The shrinkage model runs daily, not on a reporting calendar. It picks up the pattern, traces the cause, and attaches what to do about it before the number reaches a review deck.

At the metric level. Ward segments by value tier, tracks geographic clustering for ORC detection, monitors receiving accuracy on bulk/pallet deliveries, and measures POS velocity-to-inventory count gaps.

Signals · POS at SKU-store-shift, receiving logs and PO variance, store geocodes for ORC clustering, employee schedules, and category-value-tier overlays.

What the first 90 days
actually look like.

  1. 01

    Week 1: read-only connection

    Ward plugs into SAP Retail with read-only credentials and begins ingesting POS transactions and inventory positions. No config changes on your side. First findings arrive within 48 hours.

  2. 02

    Weeks 2 to 3: calibration

    Baselines stabilize per store and per category. Ward stops flagging normal variance and starts flagging exceptions. This is the window where the false positive rate drops sharply.

  3. 03

    Weeks 4 to 12: operating rhythm

    Cards arrive every morning and get triaged like any other queue. Most teams find the volume settles into something one person clears in ten minutes. What matters is the action rate, not the alert count.

How Ward connects to SAP Retail

Ward connects to SAP Retail (S/4HANA, ECC, CAR) via standard BAPIs and IDocs. Transaction data, inventory positions, and master data flow into Ward without custom development.

Setup: Ward reads from SAP via RFC/BAPI or OData APIs. No changes to your SAP configuration. Read-only access. Data syncs on your schedule.

Data Ward reads from SAP

POS transactions
Inventory positions
Purchase orders
Material master
Vendor master
Promotion calendar

Impact metrics with SAP

Replenishment Accuracy
Gaps flagged early
Inventory positions matched to POS velocity before shelf impact.
Shrinkage
Anomalies surfaced continuously
Transaction-level detection catches what periodic audits miss.
Forecast Accuracy
External signals layered
Weather, events, and competitor data sharpen SAP demand signals.
Promo ROI
True lift isolated
Sell-through data exposes cannibalization and halo effects.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches SAP data with: POS transactions, Weather & events, Competitor pricing, Loyalty & CRM, Supplier fill rates

Home KPI impact

Seasonal Accuracy
Weather + event driven
Pre-positioning adjusted for peak season signals.
Long-Tail Turn
Dead weight separated
Which tail SKUs serve project needs vs sit idle.
Project Basket Value
Cross-sell surfaced
Project purchasing patterns drive attachment.
Inventory Carrying Cost
Capital freed
Demand forecasting reduces slow-moving overstock.

Frequently asked questions

Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error. For Home retail specifically, Ward monitors 50,000+ SKUs across your stores and delivers automated insight cards with root cause analysis and recommended actions.

Ward tracks Project basket value, Seasonal accuracy, Long-tail turn, Pro customer share, Attachment rate at the store-category level. Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

Ward reads from SAP via RFC/BAPI or OData APIs. No changes to your SAP configuration. Read-only access. Data syncs on your schedule. Data points include: POS transactions, Inventory positions, Purchase orders, Material master, Vendor master, Promotion calendar.

Yes. Ward reads SAP data and combines it with contextual signals (weather, events, demographics) to generate Home-specific insight cards. No custom development required.

Ward segments by value tier, tracks geographic clustering for ORC detection, monitors receiving accuracy on bulk/pallet deliveries, and measures POS velocity-to-inventory count gaps.

Ward flags elevated power tool shrinkage at a geographic cluster of stores, concentrated during weekday afternoons, a pattern consistent with organized retail crime. Ward recommends immediate spider-wrap enforcement and receipt-checking at affected locations. LP investigation confirms a theft ring, and targeted intervention brings shrinkage back toward estate averages within weeks.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

See what Home shrinkage problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

Step 1 of 3
What are your goals?
Step 2 of 3
About your operation
Step 3 of 3
Your contact info