Shrinkage · Blue Yonder

Blue Yonder plus Ward: shrinkage detection

Shrinkage Detection needs demand forecasts and replenishment recommendations. Blue Yonder has both. Ward does the rest.

Shrinkage Detection on Blue Yonder data

Shrinkage Detection is a card type Ward runs continuously. Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error.

How it runs. Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

The connection itself. Ward reads Blue Yonder outputs via API or flat file export. Compares forecasts against actuals to measure accuracy.

What you get

  • Pattern recognition across time
  • Cause-level shrinkage attribution
  • Store-vs-estate benchmarking
  • Receiving dock anomaly detection
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Retail @Merchandising: VP Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why did Store 37 miss target last week?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Merchandising Agent

I pulled Store 37’s last 28 days against the chain baseline. Two root causes, both compounding.

SignalFinding
labor_efficiencyRev/labor-hour −22% vs. cluster, staffing mismatch at 11a–1p peak
inventory.freshFresh fill 83%, backroom replenishment lag at 2–4p
promo.liftBOGO crackers cannibalized Brand Y by 28%, net category +6%

Recommend: re-baseline Store 37 schedule against true peak, raise replen window to 1p, and review the BOGO before next cycle.

8 parallel queries 3 sources cited confidence 0.92
Show me how to fix the staffing mismatch.
You · 9:43 AM
Labor Agent · drafting schedule diff
Querying labor_scheduling
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Reporting

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.

7d13w52w
Revenue vs. forecast
$48.2M
+4.2% WoW
Gross margin %
24.1%
−3.2pp
Fill rate, fresh
83.4%
−4.1pp
Shrink, West region
2.41%
+0.8pp
Revenue vs. forecast 13 weeks actual, 6 weeks forecast, 80% interval
Actual Forecast 80% interval
% of plan 106 94 100 forecast → W−13 W−5 today +6wk
Holt-Winters + weather regressor MAPE 4.1% at 4wk Backtested 24 months Crosses plan in 3 weeks
Forecast error by horizon MAPE, 24-month backtest
1wk 2.1%
2wk 3.0%
4wk 4.1%
8wk 6.3%
13wk 8.9%
Accuracy bar for promo decisions: ≤5% at 4wk
Models in production Every forecast ships a model card
ModelHorizonMAPE
holt_winters4wk4.1%
arima_sarimax13wk8.9%
gbm_demand1wk2.1%
bayes_hiernew store11.4%

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
sap_pos_transactionsimport2m ago
sap_inventory_shrinkageimport2m ago
sap_labor_schedulingimport14m ago
retail_inventory_weeklyimport1h ago
retail_google_ads_dailyimport1h ago
retail_meta_ads_dailyimport1h ago
retail_ga4_website_dailyimport1h ago

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
merch-read-defaultpermitModel::*
finance-read-shrinkagepermitModel::"inventory_shrinkage"
vendor-blockedforbidModel::"labor_*"
region-west-onlypermitTenant::"acme"
Shrinkage on Blue Yonder data, live product demo.

Why this combination
is its own problem.

Shrinkage Detection needs demand forecasts and replenishment recommendations at minimum. Blue Yonder carries both, at the grain the model needs. That is the whole integration story: no middleware, no staging warehouse, no custom extract.

What Ward has eyes on.

The connection to Blue Yonder is read-only and runs on your schedule. Ward pulls from demand forecasts, replenishment recommendations, and the rest of the feed, then cross-references it with external context your Supply Chain does not carry: weather, local events, competitor pricing.

Find the leak before it drains you. Ward runs the model continuously rather than on a reporting cycle, which is why a finding lands the morning the pattern starts instead of at the end of the period.

What the first 90 days
actually look like.

  1. 01

    Week 1: read-only connection

    Ward reads from Blue Yonder with read-only credentials and begins ingesting demand forecasts and replenishment recommendations. No config changes on your side. First cards arrive inside the first 48 hours.

  2. 02

    Weeks 2 to 3: calibration

    Baselines stabilize per store and per category. Ward stops flagging normal variance and starts flagging exceptions. This is the window where the false positive rate drops sharply.

  3. 03

    Weeks 4 to 12: steady state

    Ward returns findings on a daily cycle, each with the cause and a recommended action. Volume settles at a level a single person can read over coffee. The measure of success is not how many cards arrive, it is how many get acted on.

How Ward connects to Blue Yonder

Ward layers on top of Blue Yonder demand planning and replenishment. Ward watches what Blue Yonder recommends and flags when actual diverges from plan.

Setup: Ward reads Blue Yonder outputs via API or flat file export. Compares forecasts against actuals to measure accuracy.

Data Ward reads from Blue Yonder

Demand forecasts
Replenishment recommendations
Allocation plans
Exception alerts

Impact metrics with Blue Yonder

Forecast Accuracy
Plan vs actual tracked
Forecasts scored against actuals with external signal overlay.
Replenishment Exceptions
Revenue-ranked triage
Exceptions auto-prioritized so high-impact ones work first.
Fill Rate
Allocation drift caught
Plan-to-demand divergence flagged before stockouts form.
Plan vs Actual Variance
Feedback loop tightened
Continuous plan-to-outcome comparison for planning teams.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches Blue Yonder data with: Demand forecasts, POS actuals, Weather & events, Supplier fill rates, Competitor data

Frequently asked questions

Ward reads Blue Yonder outputs via API or flat file export. Compares forecasts against actuals to measure accuracy. Data points include: Demand forecasts, Replenishment recommendations, Allocation plans, Exception alerts.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

See what shrinkage problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

Step 1 of 3
What are your goals?
Step 2 of 3
About your operation
Step 3 of 3
Your contact info