BigQuery plus Ward: stockout for a Head of E-Com
Ward ingests any BigQuery dataset, gA4 event exports, ads data transfers from Google BigQuery, runs stockout on it, and hands you the e-commerce read each day.
Stockout Prediction on BigQuery, for e-commerce
Your online and offline data live in different worlds. Ward filters to what a Head of E-Com can act on and drops the rest.
Stockout Prediction, in one sentence. Ward detects SKUs trending toward zero-on-hand and alerts your team with replenishment recommendations before customers notice.
The mechanism. Ward analyzes sell-through velocity, current inventory levels, lead times, and supplier reliability to predict stockouts 24-72 hours before they occur.
Setup: Service account with BigQuery Data Viewer role. Ward runs read-only SQL queries on your schedule.
Key capabilities
- Priority ranking by revenue impact
- Reduce lost sales by catching gaps early
- Automated replenishment recommendations
- Supplier-aware lead time modeling
Chat
Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.
I pulled Store 37’s last 28 days against the chain baseline. Two root causes, both compounding.
| Signal | Finding |
|---|---|
labor_efficiency | Rev/labor-hour −22% vs. cluster, staffing mismatch at 11a–1p peak |
inventory.fresh | Fresh fill 83%, backroom replenishment lag at 2–4p |
promo.lift | BOGO crackers cannibalized Brand Y by 28%, net category +6% |
Recommend: re-baseline Store 37 schedule against true peak, raise replen window to 1p, and review the BOGO before next cycle.
labor_scheduling…
Reporting
Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.
| Model | Horizon | MAPE |
|---|---|---|
holt_winters | 4wk | 4.1% |
arima_sarimax | 13wk | 8.9% |
gbm_demand | 1wk | 2.1% |
bayes_hier | new store | 11.4% |
Sources
Connect external systems to the data lake.
| Name | Type | Last sync |
|---|---|---|
sap_pos_transactions | import | 2m ago |
sap_inventory_shrinkage | import | 2m ago |
sap_labor_scheduling | import | 14m ago |
retail_inventory_weekly | import | 1h ago |
retail_google_ads_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_meta_ads_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_ga4_website_daily | import | 1h ago |
Policies
Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.
| Policy ID | Effect | Resources |
|---|---|---|
merch-read-default | permit | Model::* |
finance-read-shrinkage | permit | Model::"inventory_shrinkage" |
vendor-blocked | forbid | Model::"labor_*" |
region-west-only | permit | Tenant::"acme" |
What Ward has eyes on.
The stockout model runs on a daily cycle, not on a reporting calendar. It picks up the pattern, traces root cause, and attaches a recommended move before the number reaches a review deck.
The connection to Google BigQuery is read-only and runs on your schedule. Ward pulls from any BigQuery dataset, gA4 event exports, and the rest of the feed, then combines it with external context your Data Platform does not carry: weather, local events, competitor pricing.
Why this combination
is its own problem.
Google BigQuery was built for transactions, not for e-commerce decisions. The data is right there and it is in the wrong shape. Ward reads any BigQuery dataset and gA4 event exports and rewrites them as a decision.
What the first 90 days
actually look like.
-
01
Week 1: connect
Read-only credentials to Google BigQuery. Ward ingests any BigQuery dataset, gA4 event exports, ads data transfers and starts building baselines. First insight cards land inside 48 hours, before baselines are stable, so you can see the shape of the output early.
-
02
Weeks 2 to 3: baselines
Ward needs roughly two weeks of history per store to separate a real deviation from normal variance. During this window the cards are directionally right and the thresholds are still moving.
-
03
Weeks 4 to 12: steady state
Ward returns cards on a daily cycle, each with the driver and the next step. Volume settles at a level a single person can read over coffee. The measure of success is not how many findings arrive, it is how many get acted on.
How Ward connects to Google BigQuery
Ward queries BigQuery using your existing datasets. GA4 exports, POS data, CRM exports. Ward reads it where it lives.
Setup: Service account with BigQuery Data Viewer role. Ward runs read-only SQL queries on your schedule.
Data Ward reads from BigQuery
Impact metrics with BigQuery
Data lake enrichment
Ward enriches BigQuery data with: Any BigQuery dataset, GA4 event exports, Weather & events, Demographics, Custom feeds
Your online and offline data live in different worlds.
- ×Nobody can see one inventory position across every channel
- ×Online promo performance is measured separately from in-store
- ×Customer behavior data is siloed by channel
- ×BOPIS/BORIS operational complexity is growing unchecked
- ×Digital marketing attribution stops at the click
- ✓Unified insight cards across online and in-store channels
- ✓Cross-channel promo effectiveness with true attribution
- ✓Customer journey tracking across digital and physical touchpoints
- ✓BOPIS fulfillment performance monitoring with exception cards
- ✓Full-funnel marketing attribution to in-store conversion
Retailers with unified omnichannel data see 30% higher lifetime value per customer. Source: Harvard Business Review
Frequently asked questions
Service account with BigQuery Data Viewer role. Ward runs read-only SQL queries on your schedule. Data points include: Any BigQuery dataset, GA4 event exports, Ads data transfers, Custom ETL outputs.
Your online and offline data live in different worlds. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Unified insight cards across online and in-store channels. Cross-channel promo effectiveness with true attribution. Customer journey tracking across digital and physical touchpoints.
First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.
No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.
Related solutions
See what stockout problems Ward catches.
Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.
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Find out what your data has been hiding.
Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.