Fashion · Shrinkage · BigCommerce

Ward runs shrinkage on your BigCommerce fashion data

Ward ingests orders, products & variants, customers from BigCommerce and hands back fashion shrinkage insight cards each day. Read-only, no config changes.

How Ward turns BigCommerce data into fashion shrinkage

Shrinkage Detection, in one sentence. Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error.

Fashion & Apparel changes the scale of the problem: 15,000+ SKUs, every one of your locations. Seasonal sell-through, size curve optimization, and markdown timing. Ward monitors style velocity and flags slow movers before the window closes.

What Ward does with that: Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

The connection itself. Ward connects via BigCommerce REST API with OAuth. Webhooks for real-time order and inventory events.

What it does

  • Pattern recognition across time
  • Cause-level shrinkage attribution
  • Store-vs-estate benchmarking
  • Receiving dock anomaly detection
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Apparel @Merchandising: Planning Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why is fall denim sell-through behind plan?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Merchandising Agent

I pulled fall denim against last season’s curve at the same selling week. Two causes, both still fixable this week.

SignalFinding
sell_throughWeek 6 sell-through 38% vs. 52% plan, concentrated in 3 of 9 door clusters
size_curveWaist 30–32 sold out in 41 doors while 36–38 sits at 71% on hand
markdown.ladderFirst markdown is 3 weeks later than LY, weeks-of-supply now 11.4

Recommend: transfer 30–32 out of the 12 overstocked doors, hold the ladder on core indigo, and take the first markdown on light wash now while it still clears at 20%.

9 parallel queries 3 sources cited confidence 0.89
Draft the size-curve transfer list.
You · 9:43 AM
Allocation Agent · drafting transfer list
Querying sell_through_weekly
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Reporting

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.

7d13w52w
Revenue vs. plan
$31.7M
+3.1% WoW
Full-price mix
61.4%
−5.1pp
Sell-through, fall denim
38.2%
wk6, −9pp vs plan
Markdown rate
19.6%
+2.8pp
Revenue vs. plan 13 weeks actual, 6 weeks forecast, 80% interval
Actual Forecast 80% interval
% of plan 106 94 100 forecast → W−13 W−5 today +6wk
Holt-Winters + weather regressor MAPE 4.1% at 4wk Backtested 24 months Crosses plan in 3 weeks
Forecast error by horizon MAPE, 24-month backtest
1wk 2.1%
2wk 3.0%
4wk 4.1%
8wk 6.3%
13wk 8.9%
Accuracy bar for promo decisions: ≤5% at 4wk
Models in production Every forecast ships a model card
ModelHorizonMAPE
holt_winters4wk4.1%
arima_sarimax13wk8.9%
gbm_demand1wk2.1%
bayes_hiernew store11.4%

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
shopify_orders_dailyimport2m ago
shopify_returns_reasonsimport2m ago
netsuite_inventory_snapshotimport14m ago
cegid_store_salesimport1h ago
retail_size_curve_actualsimport1h ago
retail_markdown_ladderimport1h ago
retail_ga4_website_dailyimport1h ago

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
merch-read-defaultpermitModel::*
finance-read-markdownpermitModel::"markdown_ladder"
vendor-blockedforbidModel::"labor_*"
ecom-read-returnspermitModel::"returns_reasons"
Shrinkage for Fashion on BigCommerce data, live product demo.

Why Shrinkage matters for Fashion retail

The biggest hidden source of fashion shrinkage isn't theft, it's administrative error in transfer-heavy operations where every handoff between stores, e-commerce, and returns is a reconciliation risk. Ward tracks inventory movements across all channels and distinguishes transfer discrepancies from return fraud and genuine theft.

What Ward has eyes on.

The shrinkage model runs every morning, not on a reporting calendar. It catches the pattern, traces the driver, and attaches a recommended action before the number reaches a review deck.

Ward scans continuously 15,000+ SKUs over your locations, at the store-category level rather than the chain roll-up. The metrics under watch include sell-through rate, markdown %, return rate. A roll-up hides a single-store problem inside a healthy average, which is how markdown timing stays invisible for a quarter.

The connection to BigCommerce is read-only and runs on your schedule. Ward reads straight from orders, products & variants, and the rest of the feed, then joins it with external context your Commerce does not carry: weather, local events, competitor pricing.

At the metric level. Ward tracks transfer accuracy rates, return-to-sale ratios, inter-store reconciliation gaps, and high-value item movement patterns. Separating operational shrinkage from intentional loss is essential because the interventions are completely different.

Signals · POS transactions including returns, OMS transfer logs, WMS receiving scans, customer return history, payment card patterns, and tag-status fields where captured.

Why this combination
is its own problem.

BigCommerce is the system of record for most fashion operators of your size, which means the readings Ward needs are already there. The gap is not data collection. It is that nobody has time to read orders and products & variants every morning across every store.

  • 01 Inter-store transfers get scanned as "received" without case opening, so vendor short-shipments only surface at the next physical inventory.
  • 02 BOPIS and ship-from-store create double-counted inventory in the OMS that disappears on the next reconciliation as "shrink".

Benchmarks. Fashion shrink runs 1.4-2.5% of sales, with returns/wardrobing in premium tiers contributing 0.4-0.8% of that. High-value categories (handbags, outerwear, premium denim) account for 40-60% of total dollar shrink despite being 10-20% of unit volume.

What the first 90 days
actually look like.

  1. 01

    Week 1: read-only connection

    Ward plugs into BigCommerce with read-only credentials and begins ingesting orders and products & variants. No config changes on your side. First findings arrive in two days.

  2. 02

    Weeks 2 to 3: baselines

    Ward needs roughly two weeks of history per store to separate a real deviation from normal variance. During this window the cards are directionally right and the thresholds are still moving.

  3. 03

    Weeks 4 to 12: operating rhythm

    Insight cards arrive on a daily cycle and get triaged like any other queue. Most teams find the volume settles into something one person clears in ten minutes. What matters is the action rate, not the alert count.

How Ward connects to BigCommerce

Ward connects to BigCommerce for omnichannel retailers running headless or traditional storefronts. Orders, catalog, and customer data drive insight cards.

Setup: Ward connects via BigCommerce REST API with OAuth. Webhooks for real-time order and inventory events.

Data Ward reads from BigCommerce

Orders
Products & variants
Customers
Inventory
Promotions
Storefront analytics

Impact metrics with BigCommerce

Sell-Through Rate
Velocity tracked live
Slow movers flagged early enough to reallocate inventory.
Customer LTV
Churn risk identified
Cohort analysis surfaces lapsing buyers and re-engagement timing.
Conversion Rate
Buyer vs browser split
Patterns that convert separated from those that just browse.
Inventory Turnover
Reorder cadence optimized
Demand signals calibrate reorder points across the catalog.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches BigCommerce data with: Orders & variants, Customer behavior, Marketing data, Returns & exchanges, Competitor pricing

Fashion KPI impact

Markdown Rate
Shallower, earlier
Slow movers detected before deep clearance is the only option.
Sell-Through
More at full price
Style velocity cards flag underperformers early enough to reallocate.
Size Accuracy
Fewer size gaps
Size curves recalibrated by store cluster and season.
Return Rate
Better matching
Right size, right store means fewer returns.

Frequently asked questions

Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error. For Fashion retail specifically, Ward monitors 15,000+ SKUs across your locations and delivers automated insight cards with root cause analysis and recommended actions.

Ward tracks Sell-through rate, Markdown %, Return rate, Style velocity, Size accuracy at the store-category level. Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

Ward connects via BigCommerce REST API with OAuth. Webhooks for real-time order and inventory events. Data points include: Orders, Products & variants, Customers, Inventory, Promotions, Storefront analytics.

Yes. Ward reads BigCommerce data and combines it with contextual signals (weather, events, demographics) to generate Fashion-specific insight cards. No custom development required.

Ward tracks transfer accuracy rates, return-to-sale ratios, inter-store reconciliation gaps, and high-value item movement patterns. Separating operational shrinkage from intentional loss is essential because the interventions are completely different.

Ward flags a cluster of stores where high-value item returns run well above estate average, most without original tags, with the same payment cards appearing across multiple locations. The pattern matches a wardrobing ring. LP adjusts the return policy for flagged categories and sees a significant drop in high-value returns within weeks.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

See what Fashion shrinkage problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

Step 1 of 3
What are your goals?
Step 2 of 3
About your operation
Step 3 of 3
Your contact info