Furniture · Demand · Epicor · VP Merchandising

Furniture demand from Epicor, briefed to merchandising

Your category managers are drowning in spreadsheets. Ward catches furniture demand movement in your Epicor data in time to act, with the cause and the next step attached.

Demand Forecasting for Furniture on Epicor, scoped to merchandising

Demand Forecasting, in one sentence. Ward combines historical patterns, weather data, local events, and economic signals to forecast demand at the store-SKU-day level.

For Furniture Manufacturing & Retail retailers, that means continuous review 10,000+ SKUs across locations. ERP-locked production data, long lead times, and margin erosion you don't see until quarter-end. Ward connects your internal systems and surfaces what matters.

Your category managers are drowning in spreadsheets. Ward writes the finding at the altitude a VP Merchandising works at.

Under the hood. Ward builds store-level demand models incorporating seasonality, weather forecasts, promotional calendars, local events, and macroeconomic indicators.

Getting the data in. Ward connects via Epicor REST API. Compatible with Epicor Prophet 21 and Epicor Eclipse.

Key capabilities

  • Weather-driven adjustment
  • Event and holiday modeling
  • Automatic reorder point recalculation
  • Store-SKU-day level precision
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Furniture @Finance: Margin Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why is upholstery margin down four points this quarter?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Margin Agent

I pulled upholstery cost of goods by BOM line against the last price file. Three quarters of the drop is material and freight, not discounting.

SignalFinding
bom_cost_actualsFoam and frame stock +9.2% since the March price file, never carried to list
freight.inboundInbound container cost +$412 per unit-equivalent on the Vietnam lane
channel.mixWholesale share up 6pp, and wholesale runs 11pp under DTC margin

Recommend: reprice the six affected SKUs at the next list cycle, quote the alternate foam vendor, and hold wholesale allocation flat until list catches up.

11 parallel queries 4 sources cited confidence 0.90
Show me the SKU-level margin waterfall.
You · 9:43 AM
Margin Agent · building waterfall
Querying bom_cost_actuals
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Reporting

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.

7d13w52w
Revenue vs. forecast
$19.8M
+1.8% WoW
Gross margin, upholstery
42.1%
−4.1pp
Order-to-delivery, custom
14.2 wks
+1.9 wks
Aged inventory, 180+ days
$6.4M
+$1.2M
Revenue vs. forecast 13 weeks actual, 6 weeks forecast, 80% interval
Actual Forecast 80% interval
% of plan 106 94 100 forecast → W−13 W−5 today +6wk
Holt-Winters + weather regressor MAPE 4.1% at 4wk Backtested 24 months Crosses plan in 3 weeks
Forecast error by horizon MAPE, 24-month backtest
1wk 2.1%
2wk 3.0%
4wk 4.1%
8wk 6.3%
13wk 8.9%
Accuracy bar for promo decisions: ≤5% at 4wk
Models in production Every forecast ships a model card
ModelHorizonMAPE
holt_winters4wk4.1%
arima_sarimax13wk8.9%
gbm_demand1wk2.1%
bayes_hiernew store11.4%

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
epicor_production_stage_logimport2m ago
epicor_bom_cost_actualsimport2m ago
sap_inventory_snapshotimport14m ago
netsuite_sales_ordersimport1h ago
retail_showroom_posimport1h ago
retail_freight_inboundimport1h ago
retail_dealer_ordersimport1h ago

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
finance-read-defaultpermitModel::*
sourcing-read-bompermitModel::"bom_cost_actuals"
dealer-blockedforbidModel::"bom_*"
plant-read-productionpermitModel::"production_stage_log"
Demand for Furniture on Epicor data, live product demo.

Why Demand matters for Furniture retail

Configurable furniture breaks standard forecasting. A single sofa model can ship in dozens of fabric, finish, and configuration combinations, and the long lead time means you commit to components before the orders arrive. Ward forecasts at the component and configuration level, so you pre-position the fabrics and frames the mix will actually demand instead of guessing at the parent SKU.

What Ward has eyes on.

Coverage is store by store, category by category. Ward tracks inventory carrying cost, order-to-delivery cycle, gross margin by channel across 10,000+ SKUs and compares each store against its own baseline, not against the chain. That is the difference between knowing the estate is fine and knowing which seven locations are not.

Ward reads sales orders, inventory, purchase orders from Epicor on a read-only connection. Nothing is written back, and your ERP configuration does not change. Epicor stays the system of record.

The demand model runs each day, not on a reporting calendar. It catches the pattern, explains the cause, and attaches a recommended move before the number reaches a review deck.

At the metric level. Ward builds demand models at the SKU-configuration and component level, folding in seasonality, catalog and promotional calendars, showroom traffic, and channel mix. Forecasting the components common across configurations lets the plant build ahead safely, which is where long-lead furniture buys most of its speed.

Signals · Order history at the configuration level, bill-of-materials mappings, showroom traffic and quote data, catalog and promo calendars, channel mix, and plant build schedules.

Why this combination
is its own problem.

Most demand projects stall at data access. This one does not, because Epicor already exposes sales orders, inventory, purchase orders through an API Ward reads directly.

  • 01 Seasonality is applied chain-wide when outdoor, bedroom, and dining categories peak in completely different windows.
  • 02 Forecasting at the parent SKU hides that demand is concentrating on a few fabrics and finishes, so the plant builds the wrong mix.

Benchmarks. For configurable furniture, component-level forecasting can cut effective lead time by 20 to 40% by letting plants build common components ahead of order. A 10% improvement in forecast accuracy on a long-lead assortment typically reduces both expedite freight and aged custom inventory materially.

What the first 90 days
actually look like.

  1. 01

    Week 1: connect

    Read-only credentials to Epicor. Ward ingests sales orders, inventory, purchase orders and starts building baselines. First insight cards land inside 48 hours, before baselines are stable, so you can see the shape of the output early.

  2. 02

    Weeks 2 to 3: calibration

    Baselines stabilize per store and per category. Ward stops flagging normal variance and starts flagging exceptions. This is the window where the false positive rate drops sharply.

  3. 03

    Weeks 4 to 12: operating rhythm

    Findings arrive on a daily cycle and get triaged like any other queue. Most teams find the volume settles into something one person clears in ten minutes. What matters is the action rate, not the alert count.

How Ward connects to Epicor

Ward integrates with Epicor for home improvement, furniture, and building supply retailers. Inventory, purchasing, production, and sales data power insight cards.

Setup: Ward connects via Epicor REST API. Compatible with Epicor Prophet 21 and Epicor Eclipse.

Data Ward reads from Epicor

Sales orders
Inventory
Purchase orders
Customer accounts
Pricing tiers
Vendor performance

Impact metrics with Epicor

Seasonal Accuracy
Pre-buy timing sharpened
Weather and event signals calibrate seasonal positioning.
Project Basket Value
Cross-sell patterns found
Project purchasing sequences reveal attachment opportunities.
Vendor Fill Rate
Degradation caught early
Fill rate drops flagged before shelf impact materializes.
Inventory Carrying Cost
Slow-movers identified
Demand-aligned ordering frees capital tied in dead stock.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches Epicor data with: Sales orders, Weather & events, Contractor/Pro data, Competitor pricing, Vendor scorecards

Your category managers are drowning in spreadsheets.

Pain points
  • ×Promo planning still runs off last year's playbook
  • ×Assortment reviews happen quarterly when they should happen daily
  • ×Price changes chase the market a week behind it
  • ×No visibility into true cannibalization across categories
  • ×Vendor negotiations lack real-time sell-through evidence
How Ward helps
  • Insight cards flag promo cannibalization the day it happens
  • Assortment gaps and whitespace opportunities surface automatically
  • Price elasticity shifts detected before margin erosion compounds
  • Category-level performance cards replace manual spreadsheet reviews
  • Vendor scorecards generated from actual fill rate and quality data

Retailers lose an estimated $300B+ annually to suboptimal assortment and promotional decisions. Source: McKinsey & Company

Furniture KPI impact

Inventory Carrying Cost
Aged stock flagged
Slow-moving SKUs identified before carrying costs compound.
Order-to-Delivery Cycle
Bottleneck visibility
Cycle time tracked by production stage against baselines.
Gross Margin
Real-time by channel
Material cost drift detected the week it starts.
Stockout Frequency
Advance warning
POS and e-commerce signals feed back into production.

Frequently asked questions

Ward combines historical patterns, weather data, local events, and economic signals to forecast demand at the store-SKU-day level. For Furniture retail specifically, Ward monitors 10,000+ SKUs across your locations and delivers automated insight cards with root cause analysis and recommended actions.

Ward tracks Inventory carrying cost, Order-to-delivery cycle, Gross margin by channel, Raw material cost variance, Custom order cycle time at the store-category level. Ward builds store-level demand models incorporating seasonality, weather forecasts, promotional calendars, local events, and macroeconomic indicators.

Ward connects via Epicor REST API. Compatible with Epicor Prophet 21 and Epicor Eclipse. Data points include: Sales orders, Inventory, Purchase orders, Customer accounts, Pricing tiers, Vendor performance.

Yes. Ward reads Epicor data and combines it with contextual signals (weather, events, demographics) to generate Furniture-specific insight cards. No custom development required.

Your category managers are drowning in spreadsheets. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Insight cards flag promo cannibalization the day it happens. Assortment gaps and whitespace opportunities surface automatically. Price elasticity shifts detected before margin erosion compounds.

Ward delivers daily insight cards covering Inventory carrying cost, Order-to-delivery cycle, Gross margin by channel, tailored for Merchandising decision-making. Each card includes what changed, why it matters, and what to do next.

Ward builds demand models at the SKU-configuration and component level, folding in seasonality, catalog and promotional calendars, showroom traffic, and channel mix. Forecasting the components common across configurations lets the plant build ahead safely, which is where long-lead furniture buys most of its speed.

A modular seating program sells in 30 fabric and configuration combinations, but the parent-level forecast only tells the plant how many frames to build. Ward forecasts demand at the component grain and shows three fabrics are trending toward 60% of orders while eight others are fading. The card recommends pre-positioning frame and fabric inventory to those combinations. When the custom orders land, the common components are already staged, and average lead time on the program drops by several weeks.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

See what Furniture demand problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

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