Assortment Planning for Grocery on Oracle, built for loss prevention
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where. Ward flags grocery assortment movement in your Oracle data while it is still fixable, with the driver and the next step attached.
Assortment Planning for Grocery on Oracle, scoped to loss prevention
Assortment Planning, in one sentence. Ward analyzes sell-through by store cluster to recommend which SKUs to add, drop, or reallocate.
In a Grocery & Supermarket store base the job is 30,000+ SKUs over stores. Fresh availability, shrinkage, and promo effectiveness across hundreds of stores. Ward monitors perishable turn rates and flags waste before it happens.
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where. Ward writes the finding at the altitude a Head of LP works at.
How Ward returns Assortment daily cards: Ward clusters stores by demographic, traffic, and sales patterns, then measures SKU performance against cluster benchmarks.
Setup: Ward reads from Oracle Retail via REST APIs or direct database views. Compatible with Oracle Cloud and on-premise deployments.
Capabilities
- Store cluster segmentation
- SKU rationalization recommendations
- Whitespace opportunity detection
- Planogram optimization inputs
Chat
Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.
I pulled Store 37’s last 28 days against the chain baseline. Two root causes, both compounding.
| Signal | Finding |
|---|---|
labor_efficiency | Rev/labor-hour −22% vs. cluster, staffing mismatch at 11a–1p peak |
inventory.fresh | Fresh fill 83%, backroom replenishment lag at 2–4p |
promo.lift | BOGO crackers cannibalized Brand Y by 28%, net category +6% |
Recommend: re-baseline Store 37 schedule against true peak, raise replen window to 1p, and review the BOGO before next cycle.
labor_scheduling…
Reporting
Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.
| Model | Horizon | MAPE |
|---|---|---|
holt_winters | 4wk | 4.1% |
arima_sarimax | 13wk | 8.9% |
gbm_demand | 1wk | 2.1% |
bayes_hier | new store | 11.4% |
Sources
Connect external systems to the data lake.
| Name | Type | Last sync |
|---|---|---|
sap_pos_transactions | import | 2m ago |
sap_inventory_shrinkage | import | 2m ago |
sap_labor_scheduling | import | 14m ago |
relex_replenishment_plan | import | 1h ago |
blue_yonder_forecast_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_fresh_waste_daily | import | 1h ago |
retail_promo_calendar | import | 1h ago |
Policies
Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.
| Policy ID | Effect | Resources |
|---|---|---|
merch-read-default | permit | Model::* |
lp-read-shrinkage | permit | Model::"inventory_shrinkage" |
vendor-blocked | forbid | Model::"labor_*" |
fresh-team-west | permit | Model::"fresh_waste_daily" |
Why Assortment matters for Grocery retail
Every assortment addition displaces something else, so the real question is incremental contribution after cannibalization and basket effects. Ward clusters stores by demographics, traffic, and competitive set, then benchmarks SKU performance at the cluster level to produce assortment recommendations that go beyond national planograms.
Why this combination
is its own problem.
Assortment Planning behaves differently in grocery retail than it does anywhere else. The footprint shape, the SKU count, and the speed of the category all change what counts as a real data point and what is noise. Ward is tuned to the grocery version.
- 01 Cluster definitions based on store size or banner miss the demographic signal; two same-size stores can have completely different shopper profiles.
- 02 New-item performance gets evaluated against chain averages instead of cluster benchmarks, so winners in one cluster are killed because they fail in another.
Benchmarks. A typical grocery store carries 30,000-45,000 SKUs; the bottom 20% generate under 2% of revenue. Cluster-aware assortment usually frees 5-12% of facings without a revenue drop, which translates to space for 1,500-3,000 better-fit SKUs per store cluster.
What Ward has eyes on.
Stock what sells. Cut what doesn't. Ward runs the model continuously rather than on a reporting cycle, which is why a finding lands the morning the pattern starts instead of at the end of the period.
Every one of your stores gets its own baseline. Ward monitors fill rate, shrinkage %, fresh waste % against it and brings up only the deviations that hold up. The two that show up most in grocery retail are fresh waste & spoilage and on-shelf availability gaps, and both are baseline problems before they are P&L problems.
Ward pulls from Oracle rather than replacing it. Sales audit, inventory positions, allocation come across on a read-only connection, get enriched with contextual data, and come back as cards. Your ERP is untouched.
At the metric level. Ward tracks SKU productivity (revenue per facing), incremental contribution, substitution patterns, and cluster-level demand elasticity, all weighted against supplier fill rates and promotional obligations.
What the first 90 days
actually look like.
-
01
Week 1: read-only connection
Ward reads from Oracle Retail with read-only credentials and begins ingesting sales audit and inventory positions. No config changes on your side. First cards arrive within 48 hours.
-
02
Weeks 2 to 3: baselines
Ward needs roughly two weeks of history per store to separate a real deviation from normal variance. During this window the daily cards are directionally right and the thresholds are still moving.
-
03
Weeks 4 to 12: operating rhythm
Findings arrive daily and get triaged like any other queue. Most teams find the volume settles into something one person clears in ten minutes. What matters is the action rate, not the alert count.
How Ward connects to Oracle Retail
Ward integrates with Oracle Retail Merchandising (RMFCS), Oracle Retail Demand Forecasting, and Oracle Retail Analytics. Full stack visibility.
Setup: Ward reads from Oracle Retail via REST APIs or direct database views. Compatible with Oracle Cloud and on-premise deployments.
Data Ward reads from Oracle
Impact metrics with Oracle
Data lake enrichment
Ward enriches Oracle data with: Sales audit data, Weather & events, Competitor pricing, Demographic data, Supplier scorecards
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where.
- ×Shrinkage lands as a year-end surprise
- ×Cannot distinguish theft from spoilage from admin error
- ×High-shrinkage stores only identified during audits
- ×No correlation between operational changes and loss patterns
- ×Exception-based reporting misses slow-bleed patterns
- ✓Store-level shrinkage tracking with cause attribution
- ✓Anomaly detection flags stores deviating from estate average
- ✓Receiving dock discrepancy patterns identified automatically
- ✓Correlation analysis links operational changes to loss shifts
- ✓Trend analysis catches slow-bleed patterns audits miss
US retail shrinkage hit $112.1 billion in 2022. Up 19.4% year over year. Source: National Retail Federation
Grocery KPI impact
Frequently asked questions
Ward analyzes sell-through by store cluster to recommend which SKUs to add, drop, or reallocate. For Grocery retail specifically, Ward monitors 30,000+ SKUs across your stores and delivers automated insight cards with root cause analysis and recommended actions.
Ward tracks Fill rate, Shrinkage %, Fresh waste %, Promo lift, Basket size at the store-category level. Ward clusters stores by demographic, traffic, and sales patterns, then measures SKU performance against cluster benchmarks.
Ward reads from Oracle Retail via REST APIs or direct database views. Compatible with Oracle Cloud and on-premise deployments. Data points include: Sales audit, Inventory positions, Allocation, Replenishment, Demand forecasts, Price management.
Yes. Ward reads Oracle data and combines it with contextual signals (weather, events, demographics) to generate Grocery-specific insight cards. No custom development required.
Shrinkage costs you more than you think. Ward finds out where. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Store-level shrinkage tracking with cause attribution. Anomaly detection flags stores deviating from estate average. Receiving dock discrepancy patterns identified automatically.
Ward delivers daily insight cards covering Fill rate, Shrinkage %, Fresh waste %, tailored for Loss Prevention decision-making. Each card includes what changed, why it matters, and what to do next.
Ward tracks SKU productivity (revenue per facing), incremental contribution, substitution patterns, and cluster-level demand elasticity, all weighted against supplier fill rates and promotional obligations.
A category manager reviews the natural/organic section across 300 stores. Ward's analysis reveals three distinct clusters: urban health-conscious stores that should carry more SKUs, suburban stores that match the national plan, and rural locations where organic moves at a fraction of the estate average. The one-size-fits-all planogram leaves revenue on the table in urban stores while it ties up slow-moving inventory in rural ones.
First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.
No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.
Related solutions
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