Fashion · Shrinkage · Looker · Head of IT

Head of IT: fashion shrinkage, read from Looker / Looker Studio

A fashion Head of IT on Looker should not be hunting for shrinkage problems. Ward raises them each day.

How a fashion Head of IT runs shrinkage on Looker / Looker Studio

Shrinkage Detection. Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error.

For Fashion & Apparel retailers, that means tracking 15,000+ SKUs throughout locations. Seasonal sell-through, size curve optimization, and markdown timing. Ward monitors style velocity and flags slow movers before the window closes.

The business wants AI. You sign off on the architecture. Ward writes the finding at the altitude a Head of IT works at.

How Ward returns Shrinkage findings: Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

The connection itself. Ward can query Looker via API or connect directly to the underlying database. Either way, Ward monitors while your team browses.

What you get

  • Cause-level shrinkage attribution
  • Store-vs-estate benchmarking
  • Receiving dock anomaly detection
  • Pattern recognition across time
app.getward.ai Live demo
Acme Apparel @Merchandising: Planning Analyst claude-sonnet default
A

Chat

Ask anything. Ward routes to the right agent and returns cited answers.

Why is fall denim sell-through behind plan?
You · 9:42 AM
Schema Scout · routed to Merchandising Agent

I pulled fall denim against last season’s curve at the same selling week. Two causes, both still fixable this week.

SignalFinding
sell_throughWeek 6 sell-through 38% vs. 52% plan, concentrated in 3 of 9 door clusters
size_curveWaist 30–32 sold out in 41 doors while 36–38 sits at 71% on hand
markdown.ladderFirst markdown is 3 weeks later than LY, weeks-of-supply now 11.4

Recommend: transfer 30–32 out of the 12 overstocked doors, hold the ladder on core indigo, and take the first markdown on light wash now while it still clears at 20%.

9 parallel queries 3 sources cited confidence 0.89
Draft the size-curve transfer list.
You · 9:43 AM
Allocation Agent · drafting transfer list
Querying sell_through_weekly
Ask anything, Ward routes to the right agent. Cmd+K

Reporting

Pinned views built from saved data-lake queries. Every number re-derivable from its SQL.

7d13w52w
Revenue vs. plan
$31.7M
+3.1% WoW
Full-price mix
61.4%
−5.1pp
Sell-through, fall denim
38.2%
wk6, −9pp vs plan
Markdown rate
19.6%
+2.8pp
Revenue vs. plan 13 weeks actual, 6 weeks forecast, 80% interval
Actual Forecast 80% interval
% of plan 106 94 100 forecast → W−13 W−5 today +6wk
Holt-Winters + weather regressor MAPE 4.1% at 4wk Backtested 24 months Crosses plan in 3 weeks
Forecast error by horizon MAPE, 24-month backtest
1wk 2.1%
2wk 3.0%
4wk 4.1%
8wk 6.3%
13wk 8.9%
Accuracy bar for promo decisions: ≤5% at 4wk
Models in production Every forecast ships a model card
ModelHorizonMAPE
holt_winters4wk4.1%
arima_sarimax13wk8.9%
gbm_demand1wk2.1%
bayes_hiernew store11.4%

Sources

Connect external systems to the data lake.

NameTypeLast sync
shopify_orders_dailyimport2m ago
shopify_returns_reasonsimport2m ago
netsuite_inventory_snapshotimport14m ago
cegid_store_salesimport1h ago
retail_size_curve_actualsimport1h ago
retail_markdown_ladderimport1h ago
retail_ga4_website_dailyimport1h ago

Policies

Browse and manage Cedar access policies for your tenant.

TLS 1.3 AES-256 Read-only SOC 2 II
Policy IDEffectResources
merch-read-defaultpermitModel::*
finance-read-markdownpermitModel::"markdown_ladder"
vendor-blockedforbidModel::"labor_*"
ecom-read-returnspermitModel::"returns_reasons"
Shrinkage for Fashion on Looker data, live product demo.

Why Shrinkage matters for Fashion retail

The biggest hidden source of fashion shrinkage isn't theft, it's administrative error in transfer-heavy operations where every handoff between stores, e-commerce, and returns is a reconciliation risk. Ward tracks inventory movements across all channels and distinguishes transfer discrepancies from return fraud and genuine theft.

What Ward has eyes on.

The connection to Looker / Looker Studio is read-only and runs on your schedule. Ward pulls from looker API for query results, underlying database (direct), and the rest of the feed, then cross-references it with external context your BI does not carry: weather, local events, competitor pricing.

The shrinkage model runs daily, not on a reporting calendar. It picks up the pattern, traces root cause, and attaches a recommended action before the number reaches a review deck.

Every one of your locations gets its own baseline. Ward tracks sell-through rate, markdown %, return rate against it and brings up only the deviations that hold up. The two that show up most in fashion retail are markdown timing and size curve misallocation, and both are baseline problems before they are P&L problems.

At the metric level. Ward tracks transfer accuracy rates, return-to-sale ratios, inter-store reconciliation gaps, and high-value item movement patterns. Separating operational shrinkage from intentional loss is essential because the interventions are completely different.

Signals · POS transactions including returns, OMS transfer logs, WMS receiving scans, customer return history, payment card patterns, and tag-status fields where captured.

Why this combination
is its own problem.

A generic shrinkage model applied to a fashion footprint produces alerts nobody trusts. The thresholds are wrong, because fashion baselines are wrong for it. Ward learns the baseline from your own locations instead of importing one.

  • 01 BOPIS and ship-from-store create double-counted inventory in the OMS that disappears on the next reconciliation as "shrink".
  • 02 Return fraud and wardrobing get logged as legitimate returns because store associates lack the data to challenge them in real time.

Benchmarks. Fashion shrink runs 1.4-2.5% of sales, with returns/wardrobing in premium tiers contributing 0.4-0.8% of that. High-value categories (handbags, outerwear, premium denim) account for 40-60% of total dollar shrink despite being 10-20% of unit volume.

What the first 90 days
actually look like.

  1. 01

    Week 1: connect

    Read-only credentials to Looker / Looker Studio. Ward reads straight from looker API for query results, underlying database (direct), lookML model metadata and starts building baselines. First findings land inside 48 hours, before baselines are stable, so you can see the shape of the output early.

  2. 02

    Weeks 2 to 3: baselines

    Ward needs roughly two weeks of history per store to separate a real deviation from normal variance. During this window the findings are directionally right and the thresholds are still moving.

  3. 03

    Weeks 4 to 12: operating rhythm

    Insight cards arrive daily and get triaged like any other queue. Most teams find the volume settles into something one person clears in ten minutes. What matters is the action rate, not the alert count.

How Ward connects to Looker / Looker Studio

Ward does not replace Looker. Ward watches the same data Looker visualizes and proactively alerts when something changes. Your dashboards stay. Ward adds intelligence.

Setup: Ward can query Looker via API or connect directly to the underlying database. Either way, Ward monitors while your team browses.

Data Ward reads from Looker

Looker API for query results
Underlying database (direct)
LookML model metadata

Impact metrics with Looker

Time to Insight
Proactive, no login
Explains why metrics moved before anyone checks a dashboard.
Anomaly Detection
Inter-refresh coverage
Catches deviations between Looker dashboard refresh cycles.
Decision Velocity
Root cause attached
Every anomaly card includes cause analysis; no drill-down needed.
Data Utilization
Unused models activated
LookML dimensions and measures queried beyond built dashboards.

Data lake enrichment

Ward enriches Looker data with: Looker query results, Underlying database, Weather & events, Competitor data, Customer segments

The business wants AI. You sign off on the architecture.

Pain points
  • ×Business sponsor already chose the vendor. You inherit the security review
  • ×Every AI vendor wants write access and a copy of the production data
  • ×Model lock-in means rewriting the stack when GPT or Claude moves again
  • ×Audit trail is an afterthought. Compliance has nothing to pull on
  • ×Data lake project keeps getting bumped for the next thing the business wants
How Ward helps
  • Federated query: data stays in your warehouse. No copies, no shadow lake
  • Read-only credentials. Cedar policies enforce least-privilege per agent
  • LLM-agnostic. Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, Ollama. Bring your own keys
  • Every query, every model, every source logged. SIEM-ready audit output
  • VPC peering, PrivateLink, SOC 2 II. Your security review is short

74% of enterprise AI projects stall before production. Integration debt and security review are the top two reasons. Source: Gartner

Fashion KPI impact

Markdown Rate
Shallower, earlier
Slow movers detected before deep clearance is the only option.
Sell-Through
More at full price
Style velocity cards flag underperformers early enough to reallocate.
Size Accuracy
Fewer size gaps
Size curves recalibrated by store cluster and season.
Return Rate
Better matching
Right size, right store means fewer returns.

Frequently asked questions

Ward identifies abnormal inventory loss patterns and distinguishes between theft, damage, spoilage, and administrative error. For Fashion retail specifically, Ward monitors 15,000+ SKUs across your locations and delivers automated insight cards with root cause analysis and recommended actions.

Ward tracks Sell-through rate, Markdown %, Return rate, Style velocity, Size accuracy at the store-category level. Ward compares expected inventory against actual counts, segments loss by cause category, and flags store-level anomalies against your estate baseline.

Ward can query Looker via API or connect directly to the underlying database. Either way, Ward monitors while your team browses. Data points include: Looker API for query results, Underlying database (direct), LookML model metadata.

Yes. Ward reads Looker data and combines it with contextual signals (weather, events, demographics) to generate Fashion-specific insight cards. No custom development required.

The business wants AI. You sign off on the architecture. Ward solves this with automated insight cards: Federated query: data stays in your warehouse. No copies, no shadow lake. Read-only credentials. Cedar policies enforce least-privilege per agent. LLM-agnostic. Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, Ollama. Bring your own keys.

Ward delivers daily insight cards covering Sell-through rate, Markdown %, Return rate, tailored for Technology decision-making. Each card includes what changed, why it matters, and what to do next.

Ward tracks transfer accuracy rates, return-to-sale ratios, inter-store reconciliation gaps, and high-value item movement patterns. Separating operational shrinkage from intentional loss is essential because the interventions are completely different.

Ward flags a cluster of stores where high-value item returns run well above estate average, most without original tags, with the same payment cards appearing across multiple locations. The pattern matches a wardrobing ring. LP adjusts the return policy for flagged categories and sees a significant drop in high-value returns within weeks.

First insight cards arrive within 48 hours of data connection. Ward needs approximately 2 weeks to establish stable baselines for your specific operation.

No. Ward sits on top of your existing stack. It is the proactive intelligence layer that watches your data continuously and delivers insight cards, so your team acts on findings instead of hunting for them.

See what Fashion shrinkage problems Ward catches.

Root causes, not just alerts. See it on your data.

Read-only to start · your LLM keys · SOC 2 Type II underway · or book a call directly

Find out what your data has been hiding.

Tell us about your operation. We’ll show you the problems Ward catches, and the ones your current tools miss.

Step 1 of 3
What are your goals?
Step 2 of 3
About your operation
Step 3 of 3
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